2018越南房地产市场展望（英文版）_28页-3mb

2018 Vietnam Real Estate Market Outlook Summary

Core Content Overview

The 2018 Vietnam real estate market outlook highlights a positive economic environment and strong real estate performance across various sectors. The country is expected to maintain steady economic growth, supported by positive GDP growth, healthy foreign investment, and ongoing infrastructure development. These factors are expected to drive increased demand, rental growth, and occupancy improvements in both office and retail markets, while the logistics sector is anticipated to benefit from expanding manufacturing and e-commerce activities.

Economic Outlook

• GDP Growth: Vietnam achieved 6.8% GDP growth in 2017, positioning itself among the fastest-growing economies in Asia.
• FDI Inflows: FDI reached a record high of US$36 billion in 2017, with US$21 billion in newly licensed capital.
• Trade Agreements: The CPTPP and EU-Vietnam FTA are expected to be signed in 2018, opening new export markets for Vietnam's footwear, textiles, and electronics.
• Inflation and Interest Rates: Inflation is projected to slightly increase but remain below the 4% target. Interest rates have remained stable and low since 2013, supporting economic and real estate activity.
• Stock Market: The Vietnamese stock market saw a 73% y-o-y increase in market capitalization, and the VN-Index rose by 48%.

Office Sector Outlook

Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC)

• Market Performance: Office market in HCMC ended 2017 on a positive note, with rental growth and high occupancy.
• Rental Growth: Expected to increase by 2% annually in 2018–2020, driven by strong demand and limited supply.
• Supply Trends:
  • 2018: Limited to two Grade B buildings.
  • 2019–2020: Expected to see one Grade A and up to four Grade B completions.
• Grade A: Rents are projected to rise to US$40 psm from US$38 psm. No new Grade A supply in 2018.
• Grade B: Flat performance expected due to increased supply. High-quality buildings with good locations and management will command higher rents.

Hanoi

• Market Recovery: Hanoi's office market showed clear signs of recovery in 2017, with rental growth for the first time in a decade.
• Supply Growth: Reduced from 10% annually (2012–2016) to 5% in 2017, leading to improved occupancy and rental rates.
• Grade A: Expected to grow by 3.5% y-o-y in 2018, with occupancy reaching 96%.
• Grade B: Likely to see no significant rental rate changes due to high supply and competitive pricing.

Retail Sector Outlook

HCMC

• CBD Supply: Limited to <100,000 sm NLA, with <2.7% vacancy. Big brands like H&M and Zara achieved successful market debuts.
• Non-CBD Supply: Expected to increase significantly with 430,000 sm NLA coming online over the next three years, mostly in podiums of residential projects.
• Vacancy Trends: Non-CBD areas may see vacancy rates rise to 20% by 2020 due to increased supply.
• Future Expansion: The East (Districts 2, 9, Binh Thanh) will see major retail developments, driven by residential growth and good infrastructure.
• Anchor Tenants: Landlords should prioritize anchor tenants to attract foot traffic and increase dwell time.

Hanoi

• CBD Supply: Only 7% of retail supply is located in the CBD, with no new supply since 2013.
• Shop Houses: Retailers have shifted to shop houses, with walking streets around Hoan Kiem Lake becoming popular.
• Non-CBD Supply: Expected to increase with 375,000 sm NLA coming online in Western, South-Western, and Southern areas.
• New Projects: Includes Aeon Mall Ha Dong, Vincom, FLC, and Lotte Group developments.
• Retail Formats: Malls within residential complexes are thriving, due to high supply and resident traffic.

Logistics Sector Outlook

• Demand Drivers: Manufacturing growth, e-commerce expansion, and increased FDI are key drivers for warehouse demand.
• Growth in Manufacturing: Notable 23.8% y-o-y growth in manufacturing production, especially in textiles, electronics, and automobiles.
• E-commerce Expansion: Major international players like Alibaba, JD.com, Amazon, and Tencent are entering the Vietnamese market, increasing logistics demand.
• Preferred Locations: HCMC, Binh Duong, Hanoi, Bac Ninh, and Dong Nai are key locations for logistics development.
• Technology Integration: The Industrial Revolution 4.0 is expected to drive automation and logistics robots in prime logistics areas.
• Rental Growth: Rents are expected to increase in both Northern and Southern areas due to increased demand and limited supply.

Key Trends and Opportunities

• Infrastructure Development: Continued investment in metro projects (e.g., Hanoi and HCMC) is expected to boost real estate development in previously remote areas.
• Tourism Growth: Post-APEC 2017, tourism has become a key sector, with new SEZs planned to attract more visitors.
• Consumer Behavior: Vietnamese consumers are more willing to spend and value convenience, experience, and health and wellness benefits.
• Sustainability: 79% of Vietnamese consumers are willing to pay more for sustainable products, influencing retail strategies.
• Investment Potential: Vietnam remains an attractive investment destination due to positive economic growth and lower labor costs.

Summary Table

Conclusion

Vietnam's real estate market in 2018 is poised for continued growth and improved performance, supported by economic stability, infrastructure development, and increased foreign investment. While supply constraints in CBD areas will support rental growth, non-CBD and logistics sectors will see increased supply and new opportunities. The retail sector is also expected to benefit from consumer confidence and new market entrants, making Vietnam a key player in the Asia-Pacific real estate landscape.