2025-05-21-Bernstein-全球酒店与休闲2025年第一季度在线旅游代理商_OTAs_艰难的回归之旅_29页_803kb

Summary of Global Hotels & Leisure Q1 2025 OTA Performance

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of the performance and outlook for Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) in the first quarter of 2025, including Airbnb (ABNB), Booking.com (BKNG), Expedia (EXPE), and TripAdvisor (TRIP). The focus is on demand trends, revenue and EBITDA performance, and valuation changes, with a particular emphasis on the impact of 'Liberation Day' and macroeconomic factors on investor sentiment.

Key Points and Insights

Demand Trends

• Overall: Demand held up better than feared, with most OTAs beating EBITDA and only Expedia missing revenue growth.
• US Inbound: US demand was softer, especially for Expedia, but other OTAs noted that demand was being redirected to other regions such as Europe, Canada, and Asia.
• Geographical Diversification: Consumers are shifting to domestic and international travel outside the US, highlighting the importance of geographical diversification.
• Booking Window: There was a bifurcation in booking behavior, with strong short-term (close-in) demand and weaker long-term (over a month out) bookings. Expedia saw a contraction in its Vacation Rentals booking window, while BKNG and ABNB noted strong close-in performance.

Main OTA Performance Highlights

• Airbnb (ABNB):

  • Beat EBITDA expectations.
  • Maintained FY guidance and indicated moderation in booking trends, but optimism about demand recovery.
  • The Summer release and Services / Experiences initiatives are expected to drive future growth.
  • Revenue growth is expected to be 1-2% from these new business lines over the next 3-5 years.
  • The company is outperform due to potential upside from new services and strong core performance.

• Booking.com (BKNG):

  • Delivered a strong revenue and EBITDA beat.
  • Benefited from low US exposure, which helped mitigate the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty.
  • Maintained its FY guidance, with conservative estimates for 2025.
  • The core OTA business showed stable growth, and merchant revenue (e.g., flights, car rentals) contributed significantly.
  • Outperform rating due to positive EBITDA performance and potential for margin expansion.

• Expedia (EXPE):

  • Missed revenue growth and reduced FY25 bookings guidance by 200 bps.
  • B2C performance was weak, with room night growth slowing and VR performance underperforming.
  • B2B revenue remained strong, contributing to a double-digit growth.
  • The core OTA business saw a record decline, indicating a need for a turnaround.
  • Market-Perform rating due to weak demand and unclear AI strategy.

• TripAdvisor (TRIP):

  • Delivered a surprising beat on revenue and EBITDA.
  • Maintained FY guidance and showed strong core performance despite market headwinds.
  • Viator and TheFork contributed to revenue growth.
  • Outperform rating due to positive EBITDA and potential for cash returns.

Investment Implications

• Valuation Adjustments:

  • OTA valuations have largely recovered from the 'Liberation Day' dip.
  • BKNG trades at 20X NTM P/E, above its pre-pandemic levels.
  • EXPE has seen a material reduction in its valuation multiple.
  • TRIP and ABNB are seen as under-valued relative to their growth and margin potential.

• Valuation Metrics:

  • EV/EBITDA and FCF yield are important valuation tools, especially after adjusting for merchant bookings and SBC.
  • ABNB is expected to be cheaper than BKNG by 2028 on a FCF yield basis.
  • EXPE still delivers a strong FCF yield after adjustments, indicating strong cash generation.

• Stock Performance:

  • All OTAs except EXPE saw positive YTD share price movements.
  • ABNB and TRIP are rated Outperform, while BKNG and EXPE are rated Market-Perform.
  • BKNG is expected to benefit from AI partnerships and core OTA growth, while EXPE faces challenges in B2C recovery and AI strategy clarity.

Outlook

• Short-Term: Continued demand volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty will likely impact OTA share prices.
• Long-Term: ABNB and TRIP are positioned to benefit from new business lines and cash returns.
• BKNG has the potential for margin expansion and core OTA growth, but faces challenges in managing marketing spend.
• EXPE needs to rebuild B2C growth and clarify its AI strategy to regain investor confidence.

Key Tables and Metrics

Conclusion

The Q1 2025 results for OTAs showed mixed performance, with ABNB and TRIP outperforming due to strong core performance and growth potential, while BKNG demonstrated resilience and margin expansion. EXPE, however, faced significant challenges in B2C recovery and guidance reduction, which impacted its stock performance. Investors are advised to focus on growth and margin drivers, especially for ABNB and TRIP, while BKNG and EXPE may require more time to recover from short-term demand issues.