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Summary of China OTA and Internet Analysis

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of JD.com's expansion into the travel market through its travel portal, JD Travel, and its implications for the competition with Trip.com (TCOM). The report outlines JD Travel's offerings, competitive advantages, and potential threats to TCOM, along with valuation methodologies and investment implications.

Main Points

JD Travel Overview

• Launch Year: JD Travel was launched in 2014 as a feature on JD.com's platform.
• Offerings: It offers domestic and international flights, hotels, and attraction bookings.
• Promotions: Recently, JD Travel has increased its promotional activities, including limited-time flight tickets, free attraction tickets, and hotel stays during the 6.18 promotions.
• Discounts: It provides ~5-10% discount coupons on flight and hotel bookings, and RMB20-50 discount vouchers for new users.
• Partnerships: Domestic hotel inventory is sourced from partners, with some indications of CTrip's branding. It also partners with Muniao for bed and breakfast and Agoda for international hotels.

Comparison with Trip.com

• Domestic Air: JD Travel's domestic flight products are price competitive and similar in variety to TCOM's offerings.
• International Air: JD Travel lacks price advantage and flexibility in international routes, often offering limited options at higher prices.
• Domestic Hotel: JD Travel's domestic hotel prices are ~20% cheaper than TCOM but ~3% more expensive than CTrip.
• International Hotel: JD Travel's international hotel offerings are more expensive than TCOM's, with the latter having a stronger position in outbound travel.

Investment Implications

• Rating: Both JD and TCOM are rated "Outperform".
• Target Prices:
  • TCOM: USD75/HKD585
  • JD: US $51/HK$ 200 per share
• Valuation:
  • TCOM is valued using a DCF and 19x NTM PE multiple on 2026E EPS.
  • JD is valued using a 10x 2026E PE multiple.

Risks

• Trip.com (TCOM):
  • Macroeconomic conditions deteriorating further.
  • Oversupply in travel capacity affecting ASP and revenue.
  • Geopolitical risks in international expansion.
• JD.com Inc:
  • Macroeconomic risks, such as credit and retail consumption.
  • Fluctuations in user engagement.
  • Fulfillment costs and investments.
  • Regulatory risks, particularly related to China's anti-monopoly regulations.
  • Risks in new business ventures like community e-commerce.

Key Information

• JD Travel's Growth: Attraction ticket GTV increased 21x, air ticket blind boxes volume grew 28x, and hotel transactions increased 237% YoY.
• Partnerships: JD Travel uses third-party inventory for domestic and international hotels, with CTrip and Agoda as key partners.
• User Experience: JD Travel's domestic hotel offerings cater to a wide range of budgets, while international flights and hotels are less competitive.
• Discount Strategy: JD Travel's promotions are aimed at attracting both new and existing users, enhancing platform traffic.

Exhibits

• EXHIBIT 1: JD Travel can be accessed via the JD app.
• EXHIBIT 2: JD Travel offers a variety of travel services including accommodation, air, rail, and attraction bookings.
• EXHIBIT 3: JD Travel is price competitive on domestic routes and offers a RMB20 welcome voucher.
• EXHIBIT 4: CTrip offers the same base price as JD Travel without the new user promotions.
• EXHIBIT 5: CTrip provides cheaper and more flexible international flight and hotel options.
• EXHIBIT 6: JD Travel's ticket types are more limited compared to CTrip.
• EXHIBIT 7: JD Travel's domestic hotel offerings show a good spread of options, with some linked to Muniao.
• EXHIBIT 8: International hotel bookings on JD Travel lead to Agoda's site.
• EXHIBIT 9: JD Travel's domestic B&B accommodations are linked to Muniao's website.
• EXHIBIT 10: JD Travel offers numerous discounts for both new and existing users.

Valuation Methodology

• Trip.com (TCOM): Valued using an average of DCF and 19x NTM PE multiple on 2026E EPS, with SOTP valuation applied to different segments.
• JD.com Inc: Valued using a 10x 2026E PE multiple.

Rating Definitions

• Bernstein Brand:
  • Outperform: Stock outpaces the market index by more than 15 pp.
  • Market-Perform: Stock performs within +/-15 pp of the market index.
  • Underperform: Stock trails the market index by more than 15 pp.
• Autonomous Brand:
  • Outperform (OP): Stock outpaces the relevant index by more than 10 pp.
  • Neutral (N): Stock performs within +/-10 pp of the index.
  • Underperform (UP): Stock trails the index by more than 10 pp.

Distribution and Conflicts of Interest

• Conflict of Interest: Bernstein and its affiliates have received compensation and act as market makers for JD.com Inc.
• Distribution: Ratings and price targets are based on a 12-month horizon.
• Legal Entities: Analysts are based in various locations, including New York, London, and Hong Kong.

Conclusion

While JD Travel is expanding its travel offerings and implementing aggressive promotions, it faces significant challenges in competing with TCOM, particularly in the international market. The analysis suggests that JD Travel's impact on TCOM is likely to be minimal in the long run due to its limited scale and the strong loyalty loops in the OTA sector. The valuation and ratings reflect the potential for growth and outperformance for both companies, though with different market benchmarks.