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Summary of Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2018

Core Content

The Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2018 report outlines the evolving landscape of the European real estate industry in the context of a low-return market, economic uncertainty, and long-term disruptive forces. It highlights a cautious yet optimistic outlook among industry leaders, driven by a more stable Eurozone economy and strong occupier demand in many European cities. The report also underscores the growing influence of technology, demographic shifts, and changing work patterns on real estate dynamics.

Main Trends and Views

1. Cautious Optimism

• The European real estate industry is described as "cautious but positive," with improved macroeconomic conditions and strong demand for quality real estate.
• Half of the surveyed professionals expect profits and headcounts to increase in 2018, while 42% anticipate an increase in business confidence, up from the previous year.
• Despite the positive outlook, there are significant warning signals, including historically low yields, a scarcity of core assets, and the potential for rising interest rates.

2. Flight to Quality

• There is a clear trend of investors moving towards high-quality assets in the strongest markets.
• "Equity always has to be invested even when yields are going down" reflects the current sentiment.
• The report indicates that the UK remains a key destination for global capital, but concerns over Brexit are causing a shift in investment focus.

3. Impact of Brexit

• Brexit is a major concern for the UK real estate sector, with many expecting property values and investment to decline in 2018.
• However, the drop is not expected to be substantial, and UK respondents are generally more positive than their European counterparts.
• The uncertainty surrounding Brexit has led to a re-evaluation of investment strategies, with some expecting a prolonged period of adjustment.
• Frankfurt and Dublin are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of businesses and jobs relocating from London.

4. Investor Risk Appetite

• Over 75% of respondents believe that investors are taking on more risk to achieve target returns.
• There is a consensus that the market is in a late cycle, with many investors wary of the potential for a crash.
• The challenge of finding value is evident across Europe, with some suggesting that prime assets are overpriced.

5. Logistics Sector Growth

• The logistics sector is identified as the top trend for investment and development prospects in 2018.
• This is driven by the growth in online retail and the expansion of last-mile delivery services.
• However, the sector is also experiencing aggressive pricing, with some experts suggesting that the peak in logistics pricing may have already been reached.

6. Residential Market Shift

• The residential sector is no longer seen as a niche but as a critical area for investment due to housing shortages.
• Affordable housing is highlighted as a key social issue, more pressing than environmental concerns or mass migration.
• There is a growing interest in build-to-rent strategies, with some investors suggesting that it could be a major opportunity.

7. Redevelopment as a Strategy

• Two-thirds of respondents believe redevelopment is the most attractive way to acquire prime assets.
• It is seen as a low-risk approach focusing on asset management and refurbishment rather than speculative development.
• The report emphasizes the need for long-term urbanization strategies and the potential for significant infrastructure investment in the coming years.

8. Smart Asset Management

• The importance of smart asset management has increased due to low returns and the need for value creation.
• Asset managers are now expected to be more involved in tenant management, refurbishment, and re-gearing.
• The industry is also moving towards more operational management, particularly in niche sectors like student housing and healthcare.

9. Co-Working and Flexible Workspaces

• The rise of co-working spaces is reshaping the real estate landscape, driven by changing work patterns and the "space-as-a-service" movement.
• Landlords are being forced to become more flexible, offering shorter leases and break options.
• The shift towards co-working is expected to grow, but traditional office spaces with large occupiers still offer significant value.

Key Figures and Data

• Germany leads in investment and development prospects, with Berlin ranked first.
• Copenhagen and Frankfurt are the second and third cities, respectively, in the top six.
• 36% of respondents expect lower returns in 2018 compared to the previous year.
• 42% of respondents expect an increase in business confidence.
• 72% of survey respondents believe Brexit will reduce the UK's ability to attract international talent.
• Over half of respondents believe that prime assets are overpriced.

Conclusion

The European real estate industry is navigating a complex and uncertain environment, shaped by macroeconomic factors, geopolitical instability, and technological change. While there is a flight to quality and a focus on value creation, the sector is also evolving in terms of business models and investment strategies. The rise of co-working, the shift towards redevelopment, and the increasing importance of smart asset management are all signs of a more dynamic and responsive industry.