IMF-转型中期全球经济的跨境风险（英）-2023.9-58页_1mb

Summary

This working paper analyzes the cross-border risks emerging from rapid global decarbonization during the "mid-transition" period, defined as the time when fossil and low-carbon energy regimes coexist and transform rapidly. The analysis notes that the 1.5°C climate goal requires emissions to peak before 2025 and fall 43% by 2030, necessitating substantial technological shifts (e.g., solar energy, electric vehicles) that disrupt existing economic structures.

Five country archetypes emerge based on their structural positions:

1. Fossil exporters (e.g., Russia, Saudi Arabia)
2. Fossil importers (e.g., Japan, EU)
3. Critical mineral exporters (e.g., Australia)
4. Critical mineral importers/cleantech exporters (e.g., EU, China)
5. Economies balancing both (e.g., U.S.)

Using the E3ME-FTT-GENIE model, the paper finds that fossil exporters face significant GDP declines due to lost fossil revenues, while clean technology leaders like China and the EU stand to benefit the most. Key risks include stranded fossil assets, supply chain disruptions, and spillover effects in financial markets—especially through cross-border ownership of assets and interconnected debt networks.

The paper concludes that while the transition offers opportunities (e.g., job creation in cleantech), the risks are amplified by insufficient international coordination and potential "mid-transition traps." Policy implications include the need for enhanced mechanisms to price climate risks in global finance markets, international cooperation on critical mineral supply chains, and improved indicators to track cross-border transition risks beyond country-specific metrics.

Key Takeaway: The global low-carbon transition must address structural risks and promote international coordination to avoid destabilizing cross-border effects and maintain a sustainable pathway to climate neutrality.