IMF-在权力下放下预防财政危机_政府间政策和机构（英）-2025_35页_1mb

Summary

• Main Question: How can fiscal crises be prevented in decentralized fiscal systems?
• Key Instruments: Good public sector institutions, central government controls over subnational fiscal balances and borrowing, intergovernmental transfers, and subnational fiscal rules/administrative constraints.
• Fiscal Decentralization's Role: Increased spending decentralization to local governments correlates with a higher probability of fiscal crises. This effect is more pronounced in countries with local budget deficits and when central control over local borrowing is absent.
• Counteracting Measures:
  • Intergovernmental Transfers: Reduce crisis probability through risk-sharing and stabilization, though they create moral hazard via soft budget constraints and the common pool problem.
  • Central Controls: Such as fiscal rules and borrowing constraints reduce excessive spending and debt but may decrease fiscal flexibility.
  • Good Governance: Strong institutions and low corruption mitigate the negative effects of decentralization on fiscal sustainability.
  • Revenue Centralization: Associated with fewer crises, likely due to economies of scale and reduced tax competition externalities.
• Policy Implications:
  • Fiscal decentralization should be accompanied by robust governance and institutional frameworks to mitigate moral hazard.
  • Central government oversight through borrowing limits and fiscal rules can prevent local fiscal indiscipline.
  • Intergovernmental transfers are useful tools for stabilization but should be designed carefully to minimize moral hazard.
  • Good institutions are crucial for maintaining fiscal discipline under decentralization.
  • Countries must balance the benefits of fiscal flexibility against the risks of reduced central capacity to manage instability.