2016年-世界发展银行全球_Kazakhstan_Economic_Update_Summer_2016___A_Long_Road_to_Recovery_30页_3mb

Kazakhstan Economic Update Summary - Summer 2016

Core Content

This document provides an economic update on Kazakhstan for the summer of 2016, focusing on macroeconomic policies, structural reforms, and the outlook for economic recovery. It outlines the challenges faced by the economy due to a difficult external environment, including declining oil prices and weak demand from key trading partners like China and Russia. The report also details the government's response, including fiscal and monetary adjustments, and highlights the impact of these changes on inflation, employment, and poverty.

Main Points

Economic Performance

• GDP Growth: Slowed from 4.1% in 2014 to 1.2% in 2015, and further to an estimated -0.2% in the first five months of 2016.
• Sectoral Impact: All economic sectors experienced a slowdown, with extractive industries (especially oil and iron ore) suffering significant declines.
• Non-Oil Sectors: The non-oil service sector was the main contributor to growth in 2015, but early signs indicate a contraction in 2016 due to weak domestic demand.
• Industrial Output: Declined by 2.2% year-on-year in the first five months of 2016, primarily due to reduced oil and mineral exports.

Inflation and Real Wages

• Inflation: Rose sharply from 3.8% in August 2015 to 16.7% in May 2016, driven by depreciation of the tenge and higher import prices.
• Real Wages: Fell by 2.7% in Q1 2016, eroding consumer purchasing power.
• Consumer Price Inflation: Notable increases in basic goods like apparel, durable goods, and medicine, particularly in Q4 2015 and early 2016.

Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy

• Floating Exchange Rate: Implemented in August 2015, leading to a sharp depreciation of the tenge (from 188 KZT/USD to 384 KZT/USD).
• Recovery: The tenge stabilized and began to appreciate as oil prices stabilized and monetary policy adjusted.
• Interest Rates: The central bank introduced a new base rate in September 2015, but it was suspended in November 2015 due to instability. The rate was reintroduced in February 2016, helping to stabilize the money market.

Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal Adjustments: The government shifted from a proactive fiscal policy in 2015 to a more consolidated approach in 2016.
• Spending Reduction: The 2016 budget aimed for reduced overall spending and a non-oil deficit consistent with medium-term consolidation.
• Off-Budget Support: Increased off-budget support to the national oil company contributed to a non-oil deficit, counteracting fiscal consolidation efforts.

Key Information

Structural Reforms

• Program Launch: The "One Hundred Concrete Steps, a Modern State for All" program was launched in May 2015 and includes reforms in public administration, regulatory framework, SOE management, and sector-specific initiatives.
• Legislation: The relevant legislation was passed in December 2015, and a privatization program was introduced.
• Objective: To diversify the economy and reduce dependence on oil exports.

Employment and Poverty

• Labor Market: Real wages declined by 2.4% in 2015 and 2.7% in Q1 2016, while the official unemployment rate remained stable at around 5%.
• Poverty Rate: Stuck at 14% (measured at US$5 per day in PPP terms) between 2014 and 2016.
• Vulnerability: Low-income households are particularly affected by inflation, declining real wages, and reduced employment opportunities.
• Future Challenges: A large cohort of workers will enter the labor market starting in 2020, requiring job creation strategies.

Outlook

• Baseline Scenario: GDP growth is expected to recover gradually, with a projected growth rate of 1.9% in 2017 and 3.7% in 2018, driven by production at the Kashagan oilfield and improved global oil prices.
• Inflation: Expected to ease to an average of 6-8% per year by 2018.
• Downside Risks: Include financial sector instability, weak global growth, and a prolonged Russian recession.
• Fiscal and External Conditions: Expected to improve, with the external deficit narrowing and foreign direct investment increasing.

Focus Section: Job Creation in a Difficult Economic Context

• Strategic Framework: A strategic framework for employment creation is outlined, emphasizing the need for higher-quality growth in the non-oil economy.
• Employment Gains: Employment gains and losses by employer type and location were analyzed, showing a decline in employment from 2010-13.
• Labor Force Growth: Projected to increase steadily from 2010 to 2050, with a focus on preparing for future labor market needs.
• Growth Requirements: Sustained growth rates are necessary to maintain stable employment indicators and create productive jobs.

Conclusion

Kazakhstan is on a path to recovery, but the process is expected to be long and challenging. The shift to a floating exchange rate and inflation-targeting regime has been difficult, but the central bank is making progress. Structural reforms are being implemented to diversify the economy, and the government is focusing on fiscal consolidation and poverty reduction. The labor market and poverty indicators remain under pressure, with a need for more effective policies to promote job creation and shared prosperity.