2015年-世界发展银行全球_Tanzania_Economic_Update_No_6___The_Elephant_in_the_Room_-_Unlocking_the_Potential_of_the_Tourism_Industry_for_Tanzanians_80页_24mb

Tanzania Economic Update Summary

Core Content

This document provides an updated assessment of the Tanzanian economy and highlights the potential of the tourism sector to drive broader economic benefits. It outlines the current state of the economy, recent developments, and the outlook for the future, emphasizing the need for effective fiscal management and strategic tourism development.

Main Viewpoints

• Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction: Tanzania's economy has grown significantly, with GDP growth averaging around 7% and a decline in poverty rates. The country is on track to achieve middle-income status, with an average per capita income of approximately US$948.
• Fiscal Challenges: Despite progress, Tanzania's fiscal policy remains a key weakness. The government has missed revenue targets, leading to cuts in public spending and the accumulation of arrears. The fiscal deficit has reduced from 5% of GDP to 3.4%, but this has been achieved at a high cost.
• Tourism's Role: Tourism is a fast-growing sector that contributes significantly to GDP and foreign exchange earnings. However, it has not yet maximized benefits for Tanzanians due to limited diversification, weak community linkages, and inefficiencies in revenue collection and governance.
• Strategic Directions for Tourism: To enhance benefits, the report proposes three strategic directions: (i) diversification of tourism activities across multiple dimensions, (ii) deeper integration with local communities and small operators, and (iii) improved governance in fiscal revenue management and natural resource use.

Key Information

Economic Performance

• GDP Growth: Maintains an average of 7%, though more volatile than previously thought.
• Inflation: Stabilized at around 5-6%.
• Balance of Payments: Relatively stable, but sensitive to international commodity prices.
• Poverty: Declined from 34% in 2007 to 28% in 2012. However, 40% of adults earn less than US$1.25 per day, and 90% earn less than US$3 per day.
• Fiscal Deficit: Reduced to 3.4% of GDP in 2013/14, but arrears have increased, and the government has had to borrow more to cover deficits.

Tourism Sector

• Tourist Arrivals: Reached over one million in 2013.
• Contribution to GDP: Tourism is the most significant source of foreign currency and is growing rapidly.
• Employment: Provides employment for about half a million people.
• Tourism Revenue: The tourism sector contributes only about 3% of GDP in terms of revenue collection, one of the lowest globally.
• Tourism Benefits: Not fully distributed among the population, especially in areas near major attractions like the Serengeti National Park.

Challenges and Opportunities

• Revenue Collection: Domestic revenue collection, especially VAT, is underperforming. The VAT efficiency rate is very low, with only 3% of GDP collected in 2013/14.
• Geographic Concentration: Tourism is concentrated in the northern circuits and Zanzibar, limiting its broader economic impact.
• Community Linkages: Poverty persists near tourism sites, indicating weak integration with local communities.
• Investment and Jobs: Tourism has not created enough high-value jobs, and the sector's growth is not yet translating into substantial employment opportunities for citizens.
• Taxation and Governance: The current taxation system is complex and non-transparent, discouraging investment and leading to tax evasion. Governance reforms are essential to improve the sector's performance.

Strategic Recommendations

• Diversification: Expand tourism beyond the traditional northern and Zanzibar circuits, developing new products in areas like Selous Game Reserve and Ruaha National Park.
• Integration: Strengthen linkages with local communities by involving them in park management, supporting local businesses, and ensuring transparent revenue redistribution.
• Good Governance: Implement a fair and business-friendly taxation system, streamline levies, and improve transparency in revenue allocation and use.

Conclusion

Tanzania has made progress in economic growth and poverty reduction, but fiscal risks and inefficiencies in the tourism sector remain. The country needs to focus on diversifying tourism, integrating local stakeholders, and improving governance to ensure the sector contributes more broadly to national development and economic emergence. The government must also prioritize fiscal discipline and infrastructure investment to support sustainable tourism growth.