2021-10-31-布鲁盖尔研究所-新的欧元区通胀指标和目标（英）_29页_827kb

ECB Revises Inflation Target in 2021

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the European Central Bank's (ECB) revised inflation target introduced in November 2021, examining its alignment with international practices, the role of financial stability in monetary policy decisions, and the implications of including owner-occupied housing costs in the inflation indicator.

Key Findings and Analysis

1. Inflation Target Adjustment

• The ECB replaced its ambiguous inflation objective (inflation "below but close to 2%") with a clear symmetric inflation target of 2%.
• This move aligns with most major central banks (e.g., Fed, BoE, BoJ), though the ECB rejected average inflation targeting (adopted by the Fed in 2020).
• The 2014-2019 period saw persistently low inflation, challenging the previous framework, and systemic forecasting errors by the ECB further justified the review.

2. Role of Financial Stability

• Financial stability is formally incorporated into ECB's monetary policy framework, complementing economic and monetary analysis.
• The medium-term horizon for policy decisions (maintained price stability) now includes context-specific flexibility, accounting for deviations, origins, and persistence of inflation misses.
• Challenges remain in measuring financial cycles, particularly their divergence across euro-area countries, and potential conflicts with inflation targeting.

3. Inflation Indicator Enhancement

• The ECB plans to include owner-occupied housing costs in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), reflecting ~66% of euro-area households being homeowners.
• Two approaches are under consideration:
  • Net acquisition approach (used by Eurostat): Reflects actual purchases of dwellings, with potential impact increasing inflation by 0.08-0.23 percentage points.
  • Rental equivalence approach (used in the US): Alignment with this method ensures minimal change to the HICP.
• Including housing costs may blur lines between monetary and financial stability policies if an investment component is incorporated.

4. Future-Proof Framework

• The new framework's success depends on sustaining inflation near 2%, supported by recent post-pandemic price spikes.
• Positive elements:
  • Symmetry in the inflation target enhances credibility and predictability.
  • Climate change integration and improved communication strategies address emerging challenges.
  • A scheduled 2025 review provides flexibility for adaptation.
• However, uncertainties remain in anchor-ing long-term inflation expectations, managing financial cycle risks, and the precise timing of housing cost inclusion.

Recommendations

The ECB's revised framework marks progress toward clarity and international alignment, but its long-term success requires:

• Greater coordination on sovereign versus ECB-level responses to financial stability concerns.
• A clearer comparison of housing cost methodologies across ECB member states.
• Proactive communication to maintain public trust and accountability.

This analysis highlights the ECB's commitment to evolving its monetary policy framework, balancing multiple objectives in a dynamic economic environment.