2011年-世界发展银行全球_Towards_a_Vision_for_Agricultural_Innovation_in_Chile_in_2030_46页_7mb

CHILE Visión 2030: Summary

Core Content

This report outlines a strategic vision for Chile's agricultural innovation system by 2030, developed through a collaborative effort between the World Bank, the Ministry of Agriculture (MINAGRI), and the Foundation for Agricultural Innovation (FIA). It is the second in a series of three studies aimed at formulating a long-term agricultural innovation strategy.

The report uses scenario planning to explore potential future developments in Chile's agriculture, identifying key drivers of change and deriving implications for the innovation system. It also proposes a vision statement for the agricultural sector in 2030 and outlines next steps to transform this vision into reality.

Main Findings on Future Drivers of Change

A. Natural Resource Management and Climate Change

• Chile has diverse ecosystems, but arable land per capita is limited (0.38 ha), pushing agriculture into fragile areas.
• 46% of the continental surface is already eroded, highlighting the vulnerability of agricultural land.
• Irrigation is critical, especially in northern regions where water scarcity is a growing issue.
• Climate change is expected to impact the geographic distribution of comparative advantages, shifting traditional agricultural production to higher latitudes.

B. Market Dynamics

• Global agricultural markets have become more volatile, with significant price spikes for key commodities.
• Asia (China, India) is driving long-term demand due to rising incomes.
• Consumers are increasingly quality-conscious, demanding healthier and more environmentally and socially responsible products.
• There is a shift towards higher-value products such as meat and wine.

C. The Rural World

• Rural areas are undergoing changes in social structure, land use, and community dynamics.
• The rural economy is expected to evolve, requiring more sustainable development and better integration into global value chains.

D. Research and Development (R&D) Aspects

• Chile's R&D investment in agriculture is below the OECD average.
• The government aims to increase R&D spending from 0.68% of GDP (2004) to 2.5% by 2020, with the private sector playing a 55% role in this increase.
• Strengthening the innovation system is essential for maintaining competitiveness and responding to future challenges.

Key Views of Decision Makers

• Chilean authorities recognize the need for agricultural innovation to sustain growth and profitability.
• There is concern about the decline in productivity growth and the stagnant innovation system.
• The government is committed to innovation as a driver of development, even as it considers policy changes.

Alternative Futures

Two main scenarios were developed:

1. Business as Usual (BAU): Modest climate change impacts and a regulatory environment similar to the current one.
2. Terra Calida: Stronger climate change impacts and a more regulatory environment that emphasizes sustainability and environmental protection.

The BAU scenario is seen as a continuation of current trends, while Terra Calida reflects a more challenging and sustainable future. Both scenarios emphasize the need for innovation, information systems, and efficient value chains.

Proposed Vision for 2030

Chile's agriculture in 2030 will be characterized by five key attributes:

• C: Clean – Emphasizing environmental sustainability and responsible production.
• H: Healthy and Wholesome – Meeting the growing demand for healthier and more sustainable food.
• I: Information-based and Internationally integrated – Leveraging ICT and global market integration.
• L: Learning-oriented – Promoting continuous learning and adaptation.
• E: Efficient and Equitable – Ensuring efficiency and fair distribution of benefits across the rural economy.

Key Actions for the Next Five Years

Based on the findings and scenarios, the following areas are identified as critical for the development of Chile's agricultural innovation system:

A. Strengthening the Agricultural Innovation System

• Compare Chile's system with other OECD countries to identify gaps and opportunities.
• Redefine roles of actors and institutions.
• Introduce new governance instruments and financing sources.

B. Strengthening Information and Knowledge Availability

• Improve access to information and knowledge for producers.
• Develop ICT-based systems to support decision-making and market integration.

C. Improving Technological Control Over Production Systems

• Focus on genetic improvement and biotechnology to develop eco-efficient systems.
• Enhance farm management, including agronomy and water use efficiency.
• Strengthen value chain management through expert and market information systems.

D. Enhancing Quality Compliance and Certification Systems

• Improve quality standards and certification to meet international expectations.
• Align with ISO and SPS (Sanitary and Phytosanitary) standards.

E. Improving Human Resource Base

• Focus on skills development within the value chains.
• Promote education and training to support the innovation system and productivity gains.

Methodology and Process

• A scenario planning approach was used to explore future possibilities.
• The process included:
  • Phase 1: Information collection and analysis (October 2009 – December 2009)
  • Phase 2: Consultation and participation (December 2009 – September 2010)
  • Phase 3: Synthesis (October 2010 – February 2011)
• Four driver studies were conducted: science and technology, markets and consumer demand, rural development, and natural resource management and climate change.
• Cluster analysis was used to examine seven key agricultural subsectors.
• Interviews with 11 key stakeholders provided insights into future expectations and challenges.
• A scenario building workshop was held in Santiago in December 2010, involving 24 experts.
• Scenario implications workdays were conducted in July 2010 to derive implications across clusters and themes.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the importance of agricultural innovation in ensuring Chile's future competitiveness and sustainable growth. It calls for a strategic and coordinated approach to strengthen the innovation system, improve technological control, enhance quality compliance, and develop human capital. The next step is to elaborate an action plan in the third study, which will guide the implementation of the vision.