2013年-世界发展银行全球_Inclusive_Growth_Revisited___Measurement_and_Determinants_7页_1mb

Summary of "Inclusive Growth Revisited: Measurement and Determinants"

Core Content

This document revisits the concept of inclusive growth, emphasizing the integration of growth and income distribution in its measurement. It argues that inclusive growth is not merely about the rate of economic growth, but also about how that growth is distributed across society. The authors propose a unified measure of inclusive growth that reflects both the pace and distribution of income growth, based on a social mobility index derived from the area under the generalized concentration curve.

The paper highlights that equity and efficiency are not necessarily in conflict, contradicting the traditional view that there is a trade-off between the two. It also stresses that reducing inequality is not the goal of hurting the rich, but rather ensuring that growth benefits all segments of society.

Main Views

• Inclusive growth is defined as the combination of growth in per capita income and improvement in income distribution.
• There are two definitions of pro-poor growth: the absolute definition, which focuses on the absolute benefit to the poor, and the relative definition, which emphasizes relative income growth of the poor compared to the rest of the population.
• The unified measure of inclusive growth allows for a more accurate assessment of how growth impacts different segments of the population, distinguishing between inclusive and noninclusive outcomes.
• China exemplifies a growth-driven inclusive growth model, where rapid income growth has overshadowed inequality, leading to higher social mobility.
• India also shows growth benefits for all, but with a decline in equity, indicating a need for policy interventions to improve distribution.
• Brazil, Mexico, Malaysia, and Thailand have achieved inclusive growth through a combination of growth and equity improvements.
• Emerging markets show heterogeneous performance in the growth-equity trade-off, with some achieving strong growth without compromising equity.

Key Information

Measurement of Inclusive Growth

• A social mobility index is calculated as the area under the generalized concentration curve.
• The index, denoted as $\bar{y}^*$, is defined as:
  $$
  \bar{y}^* = \int_0^{100} \bar{y}_i , di
  $$
  where $\bar{y}_i$ is the average income of the bottom $i$ percent of the population.
• Inequality is measured by the $\omega$ index, defined as:
  $$
  \omega = \frac{\bar{y}^*}{\bar{y}}
  $$
  with $\omega = 1$ indicating a completely equitable society.

Determinants of Inclusive Growth

• Conditional convergence (lower initial income levels), trade openness, fixed investment, moderate inflation, and higher education levels are positively associated with inclusive growth.
• Foreign direct investment (FDI) has a positive impact, while ICT has no discernible effect, possibly due to data limitations.
• Financial openness is positively linked to inclusive growth, but financial deepening (measured by credit-to-GDP ratio) has a negative impact, potentially due to its association with financial crises.
• Structural transformation and upgrading of production sophistication in both goods and services are key drivers of inclusive growth.
• Export sophistication (especially in services) has a greater impact on inclusive growth than goods exports, reflecting the role of globalization and technological progress.

Policy Implications

• Macroeconomic stability, human capital development, and structural changes are crucial for fostering inclusive growth.
• Fiscal consolidation and austerity may reduce inequality but could also hinder inclusive growth.
• Future research should focus on:
  • The relationship between fiscal policy and inclusive growth.
  • Job creation and its links to labor market institutions.
  • The speed and reach of technological advancement and its impact on inequality.
• Technology and globalization are increasingly important for service exports and inclusive growth, especially in the context of digital trade and global supply chains.

Conclusion

The paper underscores the importance of integrating growth and distribution in policy analysis and emphasizes the need for country-specific approaches to achieve inclusive growth. It also highlights the role of structural reforms, financial openness, and export sophistication in promoting equitable growth. The unified measure proposed provides a new framework for researchers and policy makers to assess and promote inclusive growth effectively.