战略与国际研究中心-Iran_-Public-Opinion-on-Foreign,-Nuclear-and-Domestic-Issues_24页_282kb

报告摘要

Summary of Iran: Public Opinion on Foreign, Nuclear and Domestic Issues (2010)

Key Findings

The following summary highlights the core content, main viewpoints, and key information from a national telephone survey of 702 Iranians conducted between August 30 and September 7, 2010.

Public Opinion on Government Performance

Iranians are divided on the performance of the national government.
Economic dissatisfaction is widespread, with many expressing concerns about stagnant or shrinking income.
There is a preference for focusing on domestic affairs rather than international issues.
A majority favors closer ties with the West, but rising tensions have led to hostility toward the US, Europe, and the UN.
Support for nuclear weapons is strong, with a majority opposing deals to halt uranium enrichment.
Independent polls do not contradict the official 60% turnout in the 2009 election, which supported Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Support for religious institutions remains substantial, but the majority expects democratization.

Views on Free Speech, Rule of Law, and Morality Police

Iranians are divided on the presence of free speech and the rule of law in their society.
There is mixed support for the morality police, with some calling for their abolition.

Economic Concerns

Most Iranians report that their economic situation has gotten worse or remained the same compared to four years ago.
Financial hardship is a significant concern, with many feeling the impact of sanctions.

Desire for Regional Leadership

Iranians are weary of seeking leadership in the Middle East and Muslim world.
They prefer to focus on internal development over external influence.

Relations with the West

Iranians support closer ties with the West and seek Western help on human rights and civil society issues.
Anti-American sentiment is growing, but Iranians do not believe either the US or Israel will attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Support for Proxies

Majority support Iran’s financial and military aid to Hamas and Hezbollah.
Iranians accept a two-state accord between Palestinians and Israelis, showing support for a peaceful resolution.

Nuclear Program

A majority of Iranians support the development of nuclear weapons.
There is little interest in making deals over the nuclear program, as seen in the "Grand Bargain" and "Turkish/Brazilian deal" proposals.

Political Figures and Expectations

Former presidents Khatami and Rafsanjani enjoy broad popularity.
The Green Movement, Moussavi, and Karroubi receive 25–35% support.
Independent polls show large election turnout, similar to official returns.
Most Iranians voted for Ahmadinejad in the 2009 election.
There is strong support for the government's crackdown on opposition, indicating a preference for stability.
Iranians support theocratic governance but expect further democratization and more freedom.

Methodology

The survey included 702 telephone interviews with a representative sample of Iranian adults.
The results were weighted to match Iran’s demographics.
The margin of error is 3.5% for the full sample and 5% for half samples.
85% of Iranians have telephones, making telephone surveys a feasible method.
The survey was compared with earlier polls from WorldPublicOpinion.org, Globescan, University of Maryland, and Terror Free Tomorrow.