2024-10-29-莱坊-Warehouse_market_Emerging_markets_Q2_2024_4页_1mb

Warehouse Market Summary - H1 2024

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the warehouse market in Emerging Markets within Poland, focusing on supply, demand, vacancy rates, and rental trends. It highlights the key regions, infrastructure developments, and economic factors influencing the market.

Key Market Statistics

• Existing warehouse stock: 5.1 million square meters
• Supply under construction: 165,000 square meters
• New supply completed in H1 2024: 180,000 square meters
• Take-up in H1 2024: 255,000 square meters
• Vacancy rate in Emerging Markets: 13.1%
• New supply vacancy rate: ~50%
• New supply compared to H1 2023: 70% lower

Main Logistics Hubs and Emerging Markets

Poland's main logistics hubs continue to attract significant investment and activity. However, several emerging markets are also showing strong development, including:

• Kujawy (around Toruń and Bydgoszcz)
• Podkarpacie (around Rzeszów)
• Eastern Poland (Bialystok, Lublin, Olsztyn)
• Kielce, Zielona Góra, Legnica
• Border regions with Germany

These areas are gaining traction due to improved infrastructure and a high availability of skilled labor.

Lease Terms and Market Trends

• Asking rents for warehouse space: EUR 10.00–12.50 per square meter per month
• Service charges: PLN 4.00–7.00 per square meter per month
• Rent-free period: 1–1.5 months

Supply and Take-up

• In H1 2024, 255,000 sq m of warehouse space was taken up, a 36% increase compared to H1 2023.
• The majority of take-up was due to new agreements (88%), while renewals accounted for 9% and expansions for 3%.
• The largest contracts signed between March and June 2024 were:
  • Bydgoszcz Biały Blota Logistics Centre: 103,500 sq m
  • 7R Park Lublin: 57,500 sq m
  • Panattoni BTS Valmet Automotive: 8,800 sq m

Developer Activity

• Developer activity in emerging markets has decreased significantly.
• 165,000 sq m of warehouse space was under construction by the end of Q2 2024, a 40% decrease from Q1 2024 and a 50% drop from the same period in 2023.
• 13 warehouse developments are currently underway, with the largest being the MLP Zgorzelec Park complex, consisting of three halls (33,700 sq m, 12,100 sq m, and 3,300 sq m).
• Speculative projects have declined, with 55% of the under-construction space now secured by leases.

Vacancy Rate and Rent Trends

• The vacancy rate in emerging markets reached 13.1% at the end of Q2 2024, up 4.3 percentage points from a year earlier.
• Asking rents in the warehouse sector remained stable in Q2 2024 compared to the previous quarter.

Top 5 Warehouse Destinations in Emerging Markets

1. Bydgoszcz – 680,000 sq m
2. Lublin – 430,000 sq m
3. Rzeszów – 405,000 sq m
4. Świebodzin – 370,000 sq m
5. Zielona Góra – 270,000 sq m

Infrastructure and Connectivity

• The Via Carpatia highway is expected to significantly improve access to Poland's eastern regions, boosting the warehouse market in Podlaskie, Lubelskie, and Podkarpackie provinces.
• High-speed roads in key regions include:
  • Kujawsko-pomorskie: 170 km (A1)
  • Opolskie: 90 km (A2)
  • Lubuskie: 90 km (A2)
  • Lubelskie: 90 km (S12)
  • Podlaskie: 90 km (S61)

Economic Context

• Population of Poland: 37.8 million
• Area of Poland: 313,930 sq km
• Average monthly salary (enterprise sector): PLN 8,150 (gross)
• Average monthly salary (transportation and storage sector): PLN 7,700 (gross)
• Unemployment rate: 4.9%

Key Contacts

• Research: Dorota Lachowska – dorota.lachowska@pl.knightfrank.com
• Industrial Agency: Przemysław Jankowski – przemyslaw.jankowski@pl.knightfrank.com
• Capital Markets: Krzysztof Cipiur – krzysztof.cipiur@pl.knightfrank.com
• Valuation & Advisory: Małgorzata Krzystek – malgorzata.krzystek@pl.knightfrank.com

About Knight Frank Poland

Knight Frank Poland is one of the largest and most experienced research teams in Polish commercial real estate, offering:

• Strategic consulting and independent forecasts
• Public market reports and analysis
• Tailored presentations and reports for clients

The team has a long-term presence in major local markets, enabling in-depth expertise on socio-economic factors affecting the real estate market.

Disclaimer

This report is for general information only and should not be relied upon. Knight Frank does not accept any responsibility or liability for losses or damages resulting from the use or reliance on this document. Reproduction is not allowed without prior written approval.