2018年-查塔姆研究所_The_ICC_Intervention_in_Kenya_14页_175kb

Summary of "The ICC Intervention in Kenya" (February 2013)

Core Content

This document examines the impact of the International Criminal Court (ICC) intervention on Kenya's political landscape, particularly in the context of the 2013 presidential elections. It highlights how the ICC's indictment of presidential candidates Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto has influenced public opinion and political dynamics in the country.

Main Points

1. ICC Indictment and Political Impact

• The ICC indictment of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto in 2010 has affected their popularity among certain segments of the Kenyan electorate.
• The indictment has been used by some as a political tool, with Kenyatta and Ruto's supporters viewing it as an attempt by their rivals to undermine their chances of winning the election.
• The ICC's involvement has increased the stakes of the 2013 elections, contributing to a division of voters along ethnic lines.

2. Legal Framework of the ICC

• The Rome Statute, which established the ICC, removes immunity for state officials from prosecution for international crimes.
• Kenya ratified the Rome Statute in 2005, meaning that even if Kenyatta or Ruto are elected, they are still subject to ICC rulings.
• The ICC can only exercise jurisdiction if the state is unwilling or unable to conduct its own investigations.

3. Background of the 2007–08 Post-Election Violence

• The 2007–08 post-election violence was fueled by factors such as ethnic tensions, political grievances, and a culture of impunity.
• The African Union (AU) Panel of Eminent African Personalities, led by Kofi Annan, mediated the crisis and led to the establishment of the Commission of Inquiry into Post-Election Violence (CIPEV).
• CIPEV found that while some violence was spontaneous, other areas saw well-organized attacks, and that state security agencies failed to prevent the violence.

4. ICC Trials and Election Timing

• The ICC trials of Ruto, Kenyatta, and their co-accused are scheduled to begin on 10 and 11 April 2013.
• If there is a run-off election in March 2013, it will coincide with the start of the trials.
• The trials could still be a significant issue in Kenya's 2018 general elections, as they may take at least three years to conclude.

5. Political and Social Reactions

• The ICC's charges have prompted public debate about the role of international institutions in Kenya's domestic affairs.
• Some Kenyans have responded to the ICC's involvement by using coded language and holding more private discussions, rather than openly expressing political dissent.
• The ICC has also contributed to a sense of reform and change, encouraging Kenya to engage more with regional and international bodies.

6. State Cooperation with the ICC

• Kenya is obligated to cooperate with the ICC in investigations and prosecutions.
• Failure to comply may lead to international sanctions, as seen in the case of Sudan.
• The ICC does not have its own police force, so state cooperation is essential for the arrest and prosecution of suspects.

7. Victims' Participation and Reparations

• Victims can participate in ICC trials either directly or through a legal representative.
• The ICC may order reparations in the form of compensation, rehabilitation, or symbolic actions.
• Collective reparations may be funded through the ICC's Trust Fund for Victims.

8. Implications for Kenyan Leadership

• If Kenyatta and Ruto are elected, they would be required to attend ICC trials full-time, which could interfere with their official duties.
• This has raised concerns about their ability to govern effectively, similar to the case of Ramush Haradinaj in Kosovo.

Key Information

• Election Context: Kenya's 2013 elections are its first under the new constitution, which was adopted in 2010.
• Polls: As of January 2013, 46% of voters support Raila Odinga (CORD), while 43% support Uhuru Kenyatta (Jubilee Alliance).
• Trials: The ICC has confirmed charges against Ruto and Kenyatta for crimes against humanity, including murder, persecution, and rape.
• Legal Challenges: The Kenyan government challenged the admissibility of the cases, but the ICC rejected these challenges in 2011.
• Economic and Diplomatic Implications: The ICC's involvement could affect Kenya's international relations and economic investments, particularly with the EU, which has a policy of limited engagement with indictees.
• Reform and Impunity: The ICC's intervention has contributed to a general sense of reform and has highlighted the need to address a culture of impunity in Kenya.

Conclusion

The ICC's involvement in Kenya's post-election violence cases has had a profound impact on the country's domestic and international politics. While it has raised concerns about the ability of indicted officials to govern, it has also contributed to a broader reform agenda and increased engagement with international institutions. The trials are likely to remain a key political issue for years to come, influencing both the 2013 and 2018 elections.