国际能源署-可再生能源市场更新-2023年和2024年展望（英）-87页

报告摘要

Renewable Energy Market Update Summary (IEA June 2023)

Global renewable electricity capacity additions soared to over 440 GW in 2023, driven by policy support, energy security concerns, and cheaper costs for solar PV.
- Solar PV (both utility-scale and distributed) accounted for the vast majority of this growth, with distributed systems accounting for half of global deployments, primarily in regions like Europe due to high electricity prices minimizing deployment records.
- Onshore wind additions rebounded in 2023, reaching a record 107 GW, largely due to project commissioning delays caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, with China and supply chain recovery key factors.
The energy crisis from the Ukraine invasion accelerated renewable deployment in the EU, boosting distributed solar PV growth by incentivizing alternatives to imported fossil fuels.
- Across Europe, capacity additions increased by 40% compared to pre-war forecasts, with distributed PV saving consumers an estimated €100 billion by 2023.
Latin America, particularly Brazil and the US, saw increased deployment, but with challenges like supply chain issues and policy changes.
- China strengthened its global leadership, contributing over 50% of global renewable capacity additions in 2023-2024, driven by distributed solar and wind.
The global energy crisis and supply chain disruptions have led to increased costs for some renewables (up to 15% above 2020 levels), but solar PV and wind remain the lowest-cost options.
- Grid integration challenges are growing with higher VRE shares, leading to increased focus on infrastructure investments and market reforms to manage curtailment, especially in Europe and Latin America.
Biofuels offered niche energy security benefits in specific regions like Asia, but prices remain high across markets, with limited short-term growth spur due to policy delays and feedstock issues.
Issues with permitting and auction undersubscription in some regions, such as Europe, have slowed deployment, while corporate PPAs and market forces are increasingly shaping expansion.
Financial health of renewable energy industries remains resilient globally, despite short-term challenges from inflation and supply chains, with varying conditions across sectors.