2013年-世界发展银行全球_Bulgaria___Options_to_Improve_Security_of_Gas_Supply_71页_2mb

Summary of Options to Improve Security of Gas Supply in Bulgaria

Core Content

This report, commissioned by the Government of Bulgaria (GoB) and the Bulgarian Energy Holding Company (BEH), analyzes the options for improving the security of gas supply in Bulgaria. It focuses on both short- and medium-term strategies, considering the country's vulnerability to gas supply disruptions and its role in regional gas transmission and trade.

Main Objectives

• To identify the least cost measures for ensuring gas security of supply.
• To explore alternative supply sources and delivery routes.
• To evaluate the commercial opportunities arising from improved gas infrastructure and regional integration.

Key Findings

Gas Demand and Supply Trends

• Bulgaria's gas demand is modest (3.0 bcm in 2011), but it is expected to grow over the next decade.
• Natural gas constitutes 14% of Bulgaria's total primary energy supply (TPES) currently, and is projected to increase to up to 29% by 2020.
• The growth of gas demand will be influenced by:
  • The GoB's shift towards gas-fired power generation.
  • Increased household gasification, aiming to reach 30% by 2020.
  • Higher energy efficiency in heating, industry, and power generation sectors.

Gas Supply Vulnerabilities

• Bulgaria's gas supply is heavily dependent on Russian gas, which is transited through Ukraine and Romania.
• The January 2009 gas crisis highlighted the risks of this dependency, as it caused a 16-day supply interruption and significant economic losses (estimated at €250 million for the industrial sector).
• The country lacks alternative supply routes and sources, with only a small domestic production capacity (max 1 mmcm/day).
• Gas storage is limited, with Chiren being the only underground storage facility, providing only 32% of daily demand.

Options to Improve Gas Security

Infrastructure and Supply Management Options

• Chiren Underground Storage Expansion: The only existing storage facility in Bulgaria, currently being expanded to increase capacity to 1 bcm/year by 2015.
• Galata Conversion: A depleted offshore field being converted into an underground storage facility.
• CNG Tanker Imports: Transporting Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) from Azerbaijan via Georgia or other Black Sea routes, subject to shipping constraints.
• Maximizing Linepack: Increasing pressure in the existing gas transportation system to store more gas.
• Interconnectors:
  • Greece (ICGB): Under FEED phase, with an initial capacity of 3 bcm/year, co-financed by the European Commission.
  • Romania: Under construction, expected to be operational in late 2013, with a capacity of 1.5 bcm/year, bi-directional.
  • Turkey (ITGI): Under discussion as part of the Caspian gas strategy, expected to be completed by 2017.
  • Serbia: Feasibility study completed in early 2013, with expected operation by 2015, capacity of 1.8 bcm/year.
• Reverse Flow Agreements: Formalizing agreements to allow gas to flow in the opposite direction through existing pipelines, especially with Greece and Turkey.

EU Regulations and Compliance

• EU Regulation 994/2010 requires:
  • A 1-in-20 year cold day supply.
  • Full demand levels for protected consumers over 30 days in case of supply disruption.
• To meet these standards, the report recommends:
  • Developing a southern interconnector to Greece.
  • Ensuring bidirectional flow on the Romania interconnector.
  • Maximizing linepack capabilities.
• In the high demand growth scenario (10% annual), an interconnector to Turkey is also needed by 2017.

Investment Costs

• Annualized costs for recommended measures in the base case scenario: €19 million.
• With the interconnector to Turkey, the cost increases to €31 million in the high case scenario.
• For full self-sufficiency (in case of complete supply disruption), annualized costs are:
  • €87 million without Galata.
  • €169 million with Galata.

Commercial Opportunities

• Improved interconnections and diversification of supply routes can lead to significant commercial benefits.
• Bulgaria's strategic location makes it a key player in the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) and the Energy Community Gas Ring (EC Gas Ring).
• Potential annual revenues from transit fees through the Greece interconnector could reach €55 million, with net benefits of €10 million after subtracting costs.
• The development of interconnectors could also diversify imports and support growing gas markets in the West Balkans and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE).

Regional Integration and Strategic Importance

• Bulgaria is well-positioned to benefit from the development of the Southern Gas Corridor and the EC Gas Ring, which will link the Balkans with the EU gas market.
• The country's role in regional gas transmission and trade is crucial, especially with the potential for increased transit and import diversification.
• However, the success of these strategies depends on:
  • The development of northern interconnectors.
  • Demand growth in Serbia and Romania.
  • Gas supply infrastructure improvements in Romania.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the importance of diversifying gas supply sources and routes, improving storage capabilities, and developing regional interconnectors to ensure long-term gas security for Bulgaria. These investments will also support the country's participation in the European gas market and provide commercial opportunities. The recommended strategies are cost-effective and aligned with EU regulations, ensuring both energy security and economic growth.