2018年-查塔姆研究所_Through_the_Dragon_Gate_A_Window_of_Opportunity_for_Northeast_Asian_Gas_Security_16页_715kb

Summary of "Through the Dragon Gate?" – A Window of Opportunity for Northeast Asian Gas Security

Core Content

This report analyzes the evolving dynamics of natural gas trade and security in Northeast Asia, focusing on the strategic interests of China, Russia, and South Korea. It highlights the importance of gas as a key energy source for the region and the potential for a short-term window of opportunity to establish stable and equitable energy partnerships.

Main Points

• Rising Gas Demand in Northeast Asia:
  China is expected to quadruple its gas demand by 2030, significantly increasing its share of the global gas market. By 2030, China's gas consumption is projected to reach 12% of its total energy mix, making it a major player in the region.

  • China's current gas consumption in 2011 was 130 billion cubic metres (bcm), with only 20% imported.
  • The government aims to increase domestic gas production and reduce coal dependency, but existing pipelines and domestic production may only cover 40% of demand by 2030.
  • LNG and Russian pipeline gas are expected to play a key role in meeting the rest of the demand.

• Russia's Strategic Position:
  Russia has vast gas reserves in East Siberia and sees Asia as a critical market for its future exports.

  • Russia's Energy Strategy targets 20% of its gas exports to the Asia-Pacific by 2030.
  • The Sakhalin II LNG project is currently the only Russian gas export to Asia, with plans to expand LNG and pipeline exports.
  • The "Eastern Gas Programme" aims to develop pipelines from Siberia to the Far East and through North Korea to South Korea.

• Sino-Russian Gas Cooperation:
  Despite a 2006 agreement to supply 68 bcm of gas to China over 30 years, pipeline negotiations have stalled over price and route disagreements.

  • China prefers an eastern pipeline to supply its northeastern provinces, which are experiencing severe gas shortages.
  • Russia prefers the "western route" to connect with its existing European market, allowing it to act as a swing supplier.
  • No agreement on the border benchmark price has been reached, with Russia proposing prices significantly higher than those of Central Asian gas.

• South Korea's Role and Options:
  South Korea is seeking diverse gas supply options to reduce dependence on any single supplier.

  • Russia proposed a pipeline through North Korea to supply South Korea, but the project stalled after Kim Jong-il's death in 2011.
  • China proposed an alternative undersea pipeline from Weihai, Shandong, to South Korea, which is seen as more stable and economical.
  • South Korea is also exploring shale gas investments in the U.S. and LNG imports from Sabine Pass, which could reduce reliance on Russian gas.

• Japan's Energy Transition:
  The Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011 led to a shift in Japan's energy policy, increasing its reliance on LNG.

  • Japan's gas market, once 27% nuclear, now faces a significant shortfall due to the nuclear shutdown.
  • Japan is considering LNG and pipeline options from Russia, including a proposed pipeline from Sakhalin Island to Tokyo Bay.
  • The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) will play a crucial role in approving such projects.

Key Information

• China's Gas Demand Growth:

  • Projected to increase from 130 bcm in 2011 to 550 bcm/y by 2030.
  • Domestic production, including unconventional sources, is expected to reach 450 bcm/y by 2030.
  • However, challenges like geological complexity and infrastructure limitations may delay this.

• Pipeline Projects:

  • Sino-Russian pipeline: Stalled over price and route issues.
  • Russian-South Korea pipeline via North Korea: Rejected by China and stalled due to political uncertainty in North Korea.
  • Chinese-South Korea undersea pipeline (Weihai): Proposed as a more stable and economical alternative.
  • Russian-Japan pipeline: Under consideration, with potential to supply 5-10 mt/y by 2020.

• Regional Implications:

  • A successful Sino-Russian pipeline deal could enhance regional energy security and reduce global LNG prices.
  • A Russian-South Korea pipeline may increase Russia's political leverage in the region.
  • The development of alternative routes and sources will influence the balance of power and energy security in Northeast Asia.

• Political and Economic Factors:

  • The geopolitical situation in Northeast Asia, including the nuclear crisis in North Korea and leadership changes in South Korea, affects gas negotiations.
  • Close collaboration between Russian and Chinese oil companies, as well as a potential gas-importers union, is seen as essential for achieving an equitable pipeline deal.
  • The next few months are critical for the Sino-Russian pipeline negotiations, with potential long-term consequences for energy security and trade relations.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes that the coming years present a crucial window for Northeast Asian countries to secure stable and affordable gas supplies. A win-win solution between Russia and China, or Russia and South Korea, could enhance regional energy security, but the failure to reach agreement may lead to increased reliance on LNG and higher global prices. Political and economic factors will continue to shape the future of gas diplomacy in the region.