莫卡特斯中心-美国经济形势，2023年6月（英）-15页

The report offers a critical analysis of the U.S. economy in the context of recent economic shocks, including the 2008-2009 Great Recession, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine war, as well as monetary and fiscal policy responses to inflation.

Key points include:

1. Dominance of the Administrative State: Government intervention in the economy has become pervasive across all sectors, subsuming the traditional idea of a free "private sector." Government is now an integral part of economic functioning.
2. Shift from Globalism to Nationalism: Disruptions from past crises and policy responses have ended enthusiasm for globalization, replaced by nationalism that prioritizes domestic production and nearshoring.
3. Fiscal Deficits: Fiscal actions to stimulate post-pandemic recovery combined with high interest rates to significantly increase the federal deficit.
4. Monetary Policy Risks: The Federal Reserve's anti-inflation policies, including rate hikes and quantitative tightening, have led to a sharp decline in the money supply and reduced bank assets. This increases bank risks and suggests an impending "milder recession" later in 2023 or early 2024, predicated on a potential banking crisis. The relationship between money growth and inflation, with a lag of 12-15 months, points to future inflation and a very slow economy.
5. Conclusion and Concerns: These factors (fiscal deficits, high interest rates, monetary tightening) contribute to an "economic roller-coaster." Empirical evidence supports predictions of widespread underperformance, leading to recession. The report critiques the Fed for not clearly owning these problems and suggests limiting quantitative tightening to mitigate the impact on bank stability and the economy.
6. EV Subsidies and Tariffs (Bootlegger-Baptist Theory): A critical analysis of the Inflation Reduction Act's EV tax credits and the recent aluminum tariffs. Both examples involve politically motivated regulations driven by "Baptist" groups (seeking public benefits) and "Bootlegger" groups (profiting, sometimes indirectly, from the restrictions). These actions are seen as replicating NAFTA-type favoritism to domestic producers, hindering fair competition and potentially harming consumers, while reinforcing a statist economic system.