2021-05-31-DNV-2021年能源转型展望技术进展报告（英文）_72页_15mb

Energy Transition Outlook 2021 Summary

Core Content

The Energy Transition Outlook 2021 is a report by DNV that examines ten key technologies expected to drive the energy transition over the next five years. These technologies are central to achieving a deeply decarbonized energy system, aligning with the 1.5-degree climate target under the Paris Agreement. The report emphasizes the importance of full energy-system thinking, which involves understanding the interconnectedness of technologies and policies, and the need for courageous decision-making to accelerate the transition.

The report is a supplement to DNV's main Energy Transition Outlook forecast and provides insights into the technical, economic, and strategic developments of these technologies. It highlights that no single technology can solve the decarbonization challenge, and that collaboration, innovation, and policy support are essential for progress.

Main Viewpoints

• Decarbonization is the overarching goal, requiring a combination of renewable energy expansion, improved energy efficiency, and carbon capture and storage (CCS).
• Technological progress is accelerating, particularly in areas like solar PV, floating wind, and green hydrogen.
• Cost Learning Rates (CLR) are a key factor in the adoption of new technologies, with costs typically decreasing at a constant rate as capacity increases.
• Interconnected technologies are critical for the energy transition, with sector coupling and value-chain integration enabling significant step changes in the system's performance and sustainability.
• Policy and investment play a crucial role in enabling the transition, with forward-thinking policies and climate-related financial disclosures guiding industry and governments toward a low-carbon future.

Key Technologies

The following are the ten technologies analyzed in the report:

Key Insights

• Floating wind is expected to reach 250 GW of global capacity by 2050, up from 6.3 MW in 2015. It offers new opportunities for energy generation in deep water areas and has the potential to be cost-competitive by 2050.
• Solar PV is the fastest-growing renewable energy source, with a projected 30-fold increase in electricity generation from 0.8 PWh in 2019 to 22 PWh in 2050. Advances in bifacial panels and PERC technology are expected to further reduce costs and increase efficiency.
• Green hydrogen is becoming a key player in decarbonizing sectors like shipping and industry, with multiple pathways for production and application.
• CCS is vital for reducing emissions from fossil fuel-based industries and is expected to play a significant role in the energy transition.
• Cost Learning Rates (CLR) are a critical metric for evaluating the economic viability of technologies, with core technologies (e.g., batteries) typically having higher CLRs than supporting technologies (e.g., balance of system (BOS) materials).
• Digitalization and innovation are driving the transformation of the energy system, enabling better grid integration, energy storage, and demand response.
• Policy support and financial incentives are essential for scaling up these technologies and ensuring a just and affordable transition.

Challenges and Opportunities

• Cost reduction remains a major challenge, particularly for less mature technologies like floating wind and green hydrogen.
• Standardization and industry cooperation are needed to ensure efficient scaling and reduce costs.
• Regulatory frameworks must support international collaboration and avoid hindering innovation.
• Technological integration is crucial, as the success of one technology often depends on the development and maturity of others in the energy system.

DNV Perspective

DNV believes that floating wind has great potential and that the industry must address challenges related to application expansion, cost reduction, and safety. The combined expertise of the oil and gas, maritime, and offshore wind sectors is expected to drive innovation and cost efficiency. Policymakers are key to enabling this transition through long-term targets, clear regulations, and incentives.

DNV also highlights that the current energy transition is more mission-oriented than previous ones, driven by climate goals, sustainable development, and green initiatives. The finance industry is playing an increasing role by investing in green bonds and supporting decarbonization efforts.

Conclusion

The Energy Transition Outlook 2021 underscores the importance of technological innovation, policy support, and system-level thinking in achieving a low-carbon future. The next five years will be pivotal for the development and deployment of these technologies, with the potential to significantly impact the energy system through 2050. A collaborative and integrated approach is necessary to ensure that the transition is accelerated, affordable, and just.