2012年-世界发展银行全球_Yemen_Economic_Monitoring_Note_Fall_2012_13页_648kb

Yemen Economic Monitoring Note - Fall 2012 Summary

I. Overview

Yemen has made progress in its political transition, which began in late 2011 with an agreement brokered by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and overseen by the UN and international community. The agreement led to the formation of a transitional government of national unity, which was confirmed by Parliament in early December 2011. President Abdo Rabah Hadi was elected in February 2012 to lead the transition until the next general elections in 2014.

Despite political progress, the economy remains severely depressed, with a contraction of 10.5% in 2011 and an estimated 1.9% in 2012. The number of people living below the poverty line has increased by 12 percentage points, reaching 54% of the population. The country faces serious supply shortages and inflation, with food insecurity and malnutrition levels reaching alarming levels. Over 10 million Yemenis are now food insecure, a 33% increase from 2009.

II. Political and Social Background

Yemen's transition was triggered by the Arab Spring movement, which led to intense political and security conflict. The GCC agreement aimed to establish a new political path, with a focus on national dialogue, security reforms, and political stability. The transitional government consists of equal representation from the former ruling party (GPC) and the opposition block, with Hadi as the President.

Yemen has a significant youth population, with 60% of its citizens under 35. Social indicators have improved, such as life expectancy and education enrollment, but food insecurity and malnutrition remain major concerns. The country ranks among the top ten in the world for food insecurity and third globally for child malnutrition.

III. Real Sector

Economic activity has been depressed since 2011, with the hydrocarbon sector experiencing a decline in production due to the Marib-Hodeidah pipeline disruptions. The oil pipeline issues have led to a 30% reduction in oil production, impacting domestic supply and fuel prices. The government has relied heavily on oil grants from Saudi Arabia and the UAE to maintain financial stability.

The informal sector dominates employment, with 70% of the workforce operating in low-productivity informal jobs. The country has a significant need for economic reforms, especially in promoting private sector development and improving the investment climate. Yemen's economic recovery will depend on these reforms and on the successful implementation of the Transitional Program for Stabilization and Development (TPSD).

IV. Public Finance

Fiscal policies in 2011 and 2012 focused on containing the fiscal deficit, which reached 12.7% of GDP in 2012 (excluding grants). Despite the deficit, the government managed to stay afloat largely due to oil grants from Saudi Arabia, totaling $2.1 billion. The government has also received substantial aid pledges from donors, including $6.4 billion in Riyadh and $1.5 billion in New York, totaling $7.9 billion.

Public investment remains low at 4% of GDP, and the government continues to allocate a significant portion of its budget to energy subsidies, which account for 7.2% of GDP in 2012. These subsidies create economic distortions and are a major burden on the state's finances.

V. Money and Banking

Monetary policy has been used to finance the fiscal deficit and maintain foreign reserves. The Central Bank of Yemen (CBY) has managed to stabilize the exchange rate, which has remained around YR 219 to 230 per dollar. However, the stability of the exchange rate has come at the cost of private sector credit decline and a real interest rate of about 6%.

The CBY has restricted access to foreign exchange and tightened prudential regulations, which have helped to limit pressures on the Riyal. The government has managed to maintain foreign reserves at about $4.1 billion at the end of 2011, equivalent to 3-4 months of imports under normal conditions.

VI. External Position

The current account deficit is projected to widen in 2012 due to increased food import costs and a decline in hydrocarbon exports. The deficit is expected to reach 6% of GDP in 2012, compared to a more modest level in 2011. The country's reliance on food imports (25% of total imports) has made it vulnerable to international price fluctuations.

The services sector has underperformed, contributing to the deficit. Remittances have also declined, adding to the economic pressures. The government's ability to absorb donor funds and restore confidence in the private sector will be critical for economic recovery.

VII. Outlook

The outlook for Yemen's economy remains uncertain due to ongoing political and security challenges. Key priorities for the current government include stabilizing security, restoring government authority, increasing non-hydrocarbon revenues, generating non-hydrocarbon growth and employment, and improving governance and accountability.

Structural reforms are necessary to break from past privileges and create a competitive private sector. These reforms will also address social and political demands for jobs, inclusion, and dignity. The success of the transition will be crucial in unlocking Yemen's economic potential and restoring growth.

Yemen's economic recovery will require significant resources and a coordinated effort to implement the TPSD. The country's ability to use these resources effectively and restore confidence in the private sector will determine the success of the transition and the long-term stability of the economy.