2012年-世界发展银行全球_Lebanon_Economic_Monitoring_Note_September_2012_8页_293kb

报告摘要

Political Stalemate: The ongoing political deadlock between domestic factions has hindered reforms and delayed important legislative and regulatory actions. This impasse is expected to persist until the June 2013 Parliamentary elections.
Impact of the Syrian Conflict: The conflict has intensified political divisions, led to sporadic violence, and negatively affected key economic sectors such as tourism. It has also contributed to social unrest and reduced public support for reform efforts.
Economic Growth: Economic activity in the first half of 2012 showed only modest growth of 2.5 percent, compared to 1.7 percent in H1 2011. Growth is expected to remain below 3.5 percent for 2012 due to regional instability, domestic uncertainty, and security incidents.
Inflationary Pressures: Rising international food and petroleum prices have driven inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by 5.2 percent in the first seven months of 2012, although this is lower than the 6.5 percent in the same period in 2011.

Security Concerns: The Syrian conflict has heightened security risks in Lebanon, particularly in areas near the border and in Tripoli. Violent incidents have increased, affecting both public safety and economic stability.
National Dialogue Efforts: The President of the Republic has initiated dialogue roundtables to promote political understanding and restore order. However, these efforts have not fully resolved the tensions.
Political Deadlock: The inability to pass budget laws since 2005 has continued to block reform initiatives. Key legislative proposals, such as the electoral law and labor law amendments, remain pending.
Institutional Weakness: Weak institutions have hindered economic competitiveness and private sector growth. Lebanon ranked 115th in the World Bank's Doing Business report and 91st in the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report, with institutional quality identified as a major obstacle.

Sector Performance: Key sectors like tourism and services exports showed some recovery, while construction and other areas experienced declines. Tourism rebounded by 11.9 percent in passenger arrivals at Beirut airport.
Domestic Demand: Domestic demand growth was modest, increasing by 3.1 percent in real terms in H1 2012. This is a significant improvement from the -1.3 percent growth in the same period in 2011.
Challenges: Despite some signs of recovery, the overall growth remains weak, and the economic environment remains unfavorable due to regional and domestic instability.

Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit widened in H1 2012, increasing by 27.3 percent compared to H1 2011. The primary balance dropped by 31.8 percent, from a surplus of US$1.13 billion to a deficit of US$772 million.
Public Debt: Public debt remained high, increasing to US$55.2 billion by June 2012. As a percentage of GDP, it is projected to fall to 133 percent by end-2012.
Budget Challenges: The 2013 draft budget law includes contentious tax measures to address the fiscal deficit. These measures are expected to be politically difficult to pass, especially in an election year.

Financial Sector Strength: The Lebanese financial sector remained robust, with banks attracting substantial foreign inflows. The consolidated balance sheet of Lebanese banks reached 333 percent of GDP in 2011 and continued to grow in 2012.
Lending to Private Sector: Lending to the private sector increased by 5.7 percent in H1 2012, supported by government schemes that focused on agriculture, industry, tourism, and housing.
Monetary Policy: The Central Bank raised interest rates twice in 2012 to manage liquidity and inflation. However, these measures come with risks, including the high cost of sterilization and banks' significant exposure to sovereign debt.

Trade Deficit: The trade deficit rose by 22.4 percent in H1 2012, driven by increased energy costs and higher imports for Syrian consumption. Exports, however, showed slow recovery.
Foreign Reserves: Gross foreign currency reserves stood at US$29.3 billion by June 2012, covering 16 months of imports and 2.7 times the short-term external liabilities.
Dollarization: The dollarization rate of deposits slightly improved, reflecting restored confidence and higher interest spreads on LBP deposits.

Short-Term Challenges: Lebanon's economy remains vulnerable to shocks due to high public debt, large fiscal and current account deficits, and dependence on foreign inflows. Prudent fiscal and monetary management is essential to maintain stability.
Fiscal Reforms in 2013: The government faces significant challenges in 2013, including financing the civil servant salary scale, army program, and infrastructure investments. Tax reforms are seen as critical to contain the deficit but are likely to face political resistance.
Long-Term Growth: Sustained growth will require structural reforms in infrastructure, public spending efficiency, macroeconomic stability, and competitive laws. The World Bank estimates that these reforms could potentially raise growth from 4 to 7 percent annually in the medium to long term.

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