2025-06-02-亚开行-中国出境旅游放缓对亚太地区的影响（英）_26页_746kb

Summary of the Impact of Slowdown of Outbound Tourism from the People's Republic of China on Asia and the Pacific

Core Content

This working paper by Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan, Ma. Veronica Domingo, and Sanchita Basu Das analyzes the economic and sectoral impacts of changes in outbound tourism from the People's Republic of China (PRC) on subregions in Asia and the Pacific. The study focuses on three key periods: the expansion of outbound tourism from 2017 to 2018, the slump in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the cautious recovery from 2021 to 2022.

Main Viewpoints

• Outbound Tourism as a Major Economic Driver: Outbound tourism from the PRC significantly contributes to the GDP and exports of Asia and the Pacific subregions, particularly East Asia and Southeast Asia. Before the pandemic, the PRC accounted for over 8.2% of global tourism arrivals and 17% of global tourism expenditure in 2019.

• Impact of the Pandemic: The PRC's outbound tourism experienced an 87.7% drop in 2020, leading to substantial GDP and export losses in the Asia and Pacific region. East Asia saw the most severe decline, with a 92% drop in arrivals from the PRC.

• Sectoral Heterogeneity: The economic impact of outbound tourism is not uniform across all sectors. While tourism-related sectors such as accommodation, food and beverage services, and transportation are directly affected, the impact on exports is not necessarily aligned with GDP changes due to trade and resource diversification effects.

• Slow Recovery: The PRC's tourism expenditure has not fully recovered since the pandemic. By 2023, it was still 22.8% below 2019 levels, while other countries like the US and Germany had surpassed pre-pandemic spending levels by at least 20%.

Key Information

• Outbound Tourism Trends:

  • From 2015 to 2019, PRC outbound tourism grew at an annual rate of 8.4%, outpacing the global average of 4.9%.
  • In 2019, the PRC accounted for 13.8% of global travel imports and 3.2% of total global services imports.
  • The majority of travel imports from the PRC were directed to East Asia, with Hong Kong, China receiving the largest share (13.5% of total PRC outbound arrivals).

• Tourism Expenditure and Impact:

  • The PRC has been the world's largest tourism spender since 2012, with $254.6 billion spent in 2019.
  • Tourism expenditure has a strong correlation with macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, employment, and trade balances.
  • Tourism has a spillover effect on other sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and services through increased demand for goods and services.

• Methodology:

  • The study uses the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, a CGE framework, to simulate the economic effects of changes in outbound tourism.
  • Three simulations are conducted:
    1. Business as Usual (2017–2018): Assumes no major shocks and evaluates the baseline impact of tourism.
    2. Slowdown Due to the Pandemic (2019–2020): Simulates the economic consequences of the 87.7% drop in PRC outbound tourism.
    3. Gradual Easing (2021–2022): Reflects the slow recovery of PRC outbound tourism and its effect on regional economies.

• Sectoral Impact:

  • Tourism-related sectors (accommodation, food and beverage, transportation) are most affected by changes in outbound tourism.
  • The catering sector was the most sensitive to pandemic shocks, while tourism retail was the least affected.

• Policy Recommendations:

  • The study recommends that economies in Asia and the Pacific diversify their source markets through improved travel facilitation and connectivity to reduce dependency on the PRC.
  • It emphasizes the need for resilience strategies in the tourism sector, especially in the face of external shocks and disruptions.

Conclusion

The slowdown in PRC outbound tourism has had a profound impact on the economies of Asia and the Pacific, particularly in the tourism sector and its associated industries. The study underscores the importance of understanding the interdependencies between tourism and other economic sectors and highlights the necessity for regional economies to adopt diversified strategies to mitigate future risks. The findings also suggest that the recovery of the PRC tourism market has been slow, and its effects on the broader Asia and Pacific region are still being felt.