20220331-招银国际-Lemzoparlimab_showed_encouraging_data_on_MDS_4页_947kb

I-Mab BioPharma (IMAB US) Summary

Core Information

I-Mab BioPharma is a biotech company with a strong focus on oncology and other therapeutic areas. The company has a robust pipeline of drug candidates and is actively working on multiple assets for commercialization in the next three years. It also has a solid cash position and is addressing potential US delisting risks by accelerating its Hong Kong listing.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue (RMB mn):

  • FY20A: 1,543
  • FY21A: 88
  • FY22E: 794
  • FY23E: 1,270
  • FY24E: 2,040

• Net Profit (RMB mn):

  • FY20A: 471
  • FY21A: (2,332)
  • FY22E: (1,198)
  • FY23E: (774)
  • FY24E: (187)

• EPS (RMB per ADS):

  • FY20A: 8.07
  • FY21A: (30.69)
  • FY22E: (14.99)
  • FY23E: (9.68)
  • FY24E: (2.34)

• Cash Position:

  • As of end-2021: RMB4.3bn
  • Expected to support future R&D activities and milestone payments

• Target Price:

  • US$103.60 (Maintained from previous estimate)
  • Potential upside: +446.70% from current price of US$18.95

Key Developments

1. Lemzoparlimab (CD47) for MDS

• Phase 2 Trial: Over 70 patients with newly diagnosed MDS or AML have been dosed with leMZoparlimab in combination with AZA.
• Interim Results: For 22 MDS patients with a median treatment duration of ≥4 months, the ORR and CR rates were comparable to magrolimab.
• Previous Study: Magrolimab achieved 91% ORR and 42% CR in 33 MDS patients.
• Future Plans: I-Mab expects to present detailed results in 2H22 and plans to initiate a registrational trial in MDS this year.
• Potential: Due to comparable efficacy and better safety profile, leMZoparlimab is expected to become an FIC & BIC CD47 antibody.

2. Commercialization Strategy

• Phase 2/3 Assets: I-Mab expects to complete three near-term BLA filings and product launches in 2023-2025 in China.
• Key Candidates: Felzartamab (CD38), eftansomatropin alfa (long-acting growth hormone), and potentially leMZoparlimab (CD47).
• Manufacturing: A new local manufacturing plan for felzartamab is in place, with NDA filing planned for 2022 for treatment of 3L MM.
• Facility Expansion: Phase One facility (6,000L) operational by June 2022, Phase Two (32,000L) construction expected to be completed by 2024.

3. Uliledlimab (CD73)

• Phase 2 Basket Trial: In combination with toripalimab (NCT04322006), ongoing in China for solid tumor patients.
• Key Results: Preliminary data expected to be released at the 2022 ASCO meeting, which could lead to a license-out deal.

Strategic Initiatives

• Listing in HKEx: Accelerated to mitigate US delisting risks.
• Accounting Audit: Plans to hire an accounting firm subject to PCAOB inspection starting in 2022.
• In-License Opportunities: Negotiating to in-license a pre-BLA product in the hematologic malignancy space to expand its portfolio.

Financial Projections (DCF Valuation)

• FCFF (RMB mn):

  • 2022E: (1,797)
  • 2023E: (860)
  • 2024E: (328)
  • 2025E: 401
  • 2026E: 1,599
  • 2027E: 2,831
  • 2028E: 3,426
  • 2029E: 4,116
  • 2030E: 4,671
  • 2031E: 5,469
  • 2032E: 5,618
  • 2033E: 5,974
  • 2034E: 6,035
  • Terminal Value (2035E): 122,997 RMB mn

• Equity Value (US$ mn):

  • 2022E: 8,280

• WACC: 9.4%

• Terminal Growth Rate: 4.0%

Key Ratios

• Gross Margin:

  • FY20A: 100%
  • FY21A: 100%
  • FY22E: 85%
  • FY23E: 86%
  • FY24E: 87%

• Current Ratio (x):

  • FY20A: 9
  • FY21A: 8
  • FY22E: 95
  • FY23E: 51
  • FY24E: 27

• ROE:

  • FY20A: 8%
  • FY21A: (51)%
  • FY22E: (35)%
  • FY23E: (30)%
  • FY24E: 8%

• ROA:

  • FY20A: 7%
  • FY21A: (41)%
  • FY22E: (31)%
  • FY23E: (25)%
  • FY24E: 6%

Share Performance

• Market Cap (US$ mn): 1,515
• Avg. 3mths t/o (US$ mn): 22.01
• 52W High/Low (US$): 85.40/12.00
• Total Issued Shares (mn): 80
• Share Performance:
  • 1-mth: -23.3%
  • 3-mth: -60.4%
  • 6-mth: -73.9%

Shareholding Structure

• Hillhouse Capital: 8.99%
• GIC: 5.89%
• Tasly Pharma: 5.44%
• Founder: 5.40%
• Genexine: 4.62%
• Rowe Price: 4.17%
• Others: 65.49%

Analyst Ratings

• CMBIGM Rating: BUY
• Target Price: US$103.60
• 12-Month Return Potential: Over 15%

Risk and Disclaimer

• The report is based on publicly available information and may not be suitable for all investors.
• CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice.
• Past performance does not guarantee future results.
• The report is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.
• There are potential conflicts of interest and the report is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on its contents.