20180517-兴业金融证券-腾讯控股-00700.HK-Good_Start_To_a_Solid_Year_10页_415kb
报告摘要
Tencent Summary
Core Content
Tencent, a leading internet conglomerate in China, delivered solid results in 1Q18 with revenue exceeding expectations by 4% and non-GAAP net profit aligning with forecasts. The report highlights the company's strong performance and maintains a "Buy" recommendation with a target price of HKD529, representing a 34% upside from the current price of HKD396.
Main Points
- Performance in 1Q18: Revenue beat consensus by 4%, and non-GAAP net profit met expectations.
- Key Growth Drivers:
- Social Advertising: Weixin Moment advertising increased to two posts per user daily, suggesting potential for doubling advertising revenue.
- Mobile Games: High DAU games remain under monetized, presenting a large revenue opportunity.
- Further Monetisation of Weixin: The platform's increasing value is expected to contribute significantly to the company's growth.
- Tactical Tournament Games: Tencent leads in this segment with successful games such as PUBG mobile games and Fortnite, with potential for significant revenue.
- Financial Outlook: Earnings forecasts for FY18F-20F have been adjusted to account for higher advertising revenue, lower PC revenue, and slightly lower margins. Mobile games, social advertising, and payments are projected to be the major growth engines.
- Valuation: The target price is based on SOP (Sum of the Parts) valuation, reflecting the significant value of Weixin despite its current low contribution to revenue.
- Key Risks:
- Regulatory risks in China's internet sector.
- Competition in online video and online games.
- Potential weaker-than-expected advertising demand due to economic conditions.
Key Financial Metrics
| Metric | Dec-16 | Dec-17 | Dec-18F | Dec-19F | Dec-20F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recurring EPS (CNY) | 4.8 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 11.9 | 15.5 |
| DPS (CNY) | 0.12 | 0.18 | 0.24 | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| Recurring P/E (x) | 67.3 | 47.1 | 36.2 | 27.1 | 20.8 |
| P/B (x) | 17.2 | 11.8 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 8.1 |
| Net debt to equity (%) | netcash | netcash | 11.7 | 5.0 | netcash |
| Our vs consensus EPS (%) | - | - | -0.7 | 0.6 | 4.0 |
| Revenue Growth (%) | 47.7 | 56.5 | 45.0 | 36.6 | 32.0 |
| Recurrent EPS Growth (%) | 39.2 | 42.8 | 30.1 | 33.7 | 30.0 |
| Gross Margin (%) | 55.6 | 49.2 | 49.3 | 49.2 | 47.8 |
| Operating EBITDA Margin (%) | 40.2 | 36.9 | 35.2 | 34.5 | 32.8 |
| Net Profit Margin (%) | 27.0 | 30.1 | 27.3 | 24.9 | 23.9 |
| Dividend Yield (%) | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 2.02 | (2.31) | (3.51) | (1.56) | (0.60) |
Financial Outlook
- Earnings Forecasts:
- FY18F: Recurring net profit of CNY84,749m.
- FY19F: Recurring net profit of CNY113,340m.
- FY20F: Recurring net profit of CNY147,352m.
- Non-GAAP Earnings CAGR: Projected at 31% for FY17-20F.
- Target Price: HKD529, implying FY18F-19F P/Es of 50x and 37x respectively.
Strategic Investments
- Tencent has made strategic investments in e-commerce, retail, and online travel.
- Its mini-program ecosystem is expanding, leveraging its large content library for competitive advantage in the mini-video and newsfeed space.
Share Data
- Market Cap: USD479,670m.
- Avg Daily Turnover (HKD/USD): 11,872m/1,513m.
- 52-wk Price Range (HKD): 260 - 475.
- Free Float (%): 50.
- Shares Outstanding (m): 9,429.
- Estimated Return: 34%.
Shareholders
- MIH China (Naspers): 33.9%.
- Ma Huateng: 10.2%.
- Zhang Zhidong: 6.2%.
Share Performance
| Period | Absolute (%) | Relative (%) |
|---|---|---|
| YTD | -2.4 | -6.4 |
| 1m | -1.7 | -4.3 |
| 3m | -11.4 | -11.4 |
| 6m | 1.1 | -6.1 |
| 12m | 53.1 | 30.3 |
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Strong leadership in online games and social networks.
- Diversified services and strong ecosystem.
- Strategic investments in emerging sectors.
Weaknesses
- High reliance on advertising and mobile games, which may face regulatory and competitive challenges.
- Potential for lower margins in the future.
Opportunities
- Growth in social advertising due to increased user engagement.
- Monetisation potential of mobile games and Weixin.
- Expansion of mini-program ecosystem.
Threats
- Regulatory risks in China's internet sector.
- Intense competition in online video and mobile payment spaces.
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