> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Tencent (700 HK) Summary ## Core Business Growth and AI Investment Tencent is expected to report its 2Q26E results on 12 August. The company is projected to achieve **9% YoY revenue growth** to **RMB201.3bn**, driven by **games** and **marketing** business growth. Specifically, **games revenue** is forecasted to grow by **9% YoY to RMB64.8bn**, with **domestic games** up by **11%** and **international games** by **6%**. The **marketing services** revenue is expected to increase by **18% YoY to RMB42.2bn**, attributed to **increased ad inventory** and **AI empowerment**. **Fintech and business services (FBS)** revenue is projected to rise by **9% YoY to RMB60.7bn**, primarily due to **accelerated cloud revenue growth** and **strong demand for AI compute**. The **non-IFRS net income** is estimated to grow by **7% YoY to RMB67.3bn**, although the **non-IFRS net profit margin (NPM)** is expected to decline by **0.7ppts YoY** due to **AI-related investments**. The company has slightly trimmed its **FY26 non-IFRS net income forecast** by **1%** in light of these investments, but remains **positive on the ROI** of its AI spending, which has been proven to enhance **HY model performance**, accelerate **cloud revenue growth**, and improve **ad solutions**. ## AI Progress and Catalysts Tencent's AI agentic platform **WorkBuddy** maintains its leadership in **China's productivity AI agent market** with a strong **DAU** in 2Q26. The **official HY3 model**, launched on **6 July**, shows significant improvements in **reasoning and agentic capabilities** compared to the HY3 preview, due to **enhanced dataset quality** and **scaled reinforcement learning**. In the **second half of 2026**, several **catalysts** are expected to support Tencent's **fundamental and valuation recovery**: 1. Launch of **Weixin AI agent "Xiaowei"** and **WorkBuddy iteration**, enabling the company to tap into the **AI agent market**. 2. **Upgrade of HY model** with **larger parameters**, **more quality datasets**, and **higher-value use cases**. 3. **Acceleration in cloud revenue growth**, supported by **increased AI compute power**. ## Valuation and Target Price The **SOTP-derived target price** for Tencent is **HK\$735.00**, a **reduction from the previous estimate of HK\$750.00**. The company's **current valuation** at **13x FY26E non-IFRS PE** is considered **attractive in terms of risk-reward**, with multiple **catalysts** ahead. ### Breakdown of SOTP Valuation - **Games business**: HK\$345.7, based on **24x 2026E PE**, which is **higher than the average PE of global gaming peers (17x)**. - **SNS business**: HK\$30.6, including **Tencent Video** valued at **3.5x 2026E PS**, **higher than the average PS of peers (1.1x)**. - **Marketing services business**: HK\$144.4, based on **22x 2026E PE**, **higher than the industry average (17x)**. - **Fintech business**: HK\$105.6, based on **4.5x 2026E PS**, **higher than the peer average (1.5x)**. - **Cloud business**: HK\$35.4, based on **4.5x 2026E PS**, **lower than the industry average (5.2x)** due to focus on **lower-margin IaaS**. - **Strategic investments**: HK\$71.1, based on **current market value** and **book value** of investments, with a **30% holding company discount**. - **Net cash**: HK\$2.2. ## Financial Summary ### Revenue Forecast | Year | Revenue (RMB mn) | |------|------------------| | FY24A | 660,257 | | FY25A | 751,766 | | FY26E | 817,806 | | FY27E | 878,578 | | FY28E | 926,280 | ### Adjusted Net Profit Forecast | Year | Adjusted Net Profit (RMB mn) | |------|------------------------------| | FY24A | 222,703.0 | | FY25A | 259,626.0 | | FY26E | 272,643.2 | | FY27E | 287,512.3 | | FY28E | 306,655.4 | ### EPS Forecast | Year | Adjusted EPS (RMB) | |------|-------------------| | FY24A | 23.96 | | FY25A | 28.55 | | FY26E | 29.95 | | FY27E | 32.06 | | FY28E | 34.72 | ### P/E Forecast | Year | P/E (x) | |------|--------| | FY24A | 19.1 | | FY25A | 16.1 | | FY26E | 15.2 | | FY27E | 14.3 | | FY28E | 13.5 | ## Key Financial Metrics ### Gross Margin | Year | Gross Margin (%) | |------|------------------| | FY24A | 52.9 | | FY25A | 56.2 | | FY26E | 57.2 | | FY27E | 57.7 | | FY28E | 57.9 | ### Operating Margin | Year | Operating Margin (%) | |------|----------------------| | FY24A | 31.5 | | FY25A | 32.1 | | FY26E | 32.0 | | FY27E | 31.6 | | FY28E | 31.6 | ### Adjusted Net Margin | Year | Adjusted Net Margin (%) | |------|-------------------------| | FY24A | 33.7 | | FY25A | 34.5 | | FY26E | 33.3 | | FY27E | 32.7 | | FY28E | 33.1 | ### Net Debt to Equity | Year | Net Debt to Equity (x) | |------|------------------------| | FY24A | 0.2 | | FY25A | 0.2 | | FY26E | 0.2 | | FY27E | 0.1 | | FY28E | 0.0 | ### Current Ratio | Year | Current Ratio (x) | |------|------------------| | FY24A | 1.3 | | FY25A | 1.4 | | FY26E | 1.5 | | FY27E | 1.7 | | FY28E | 2.1 | ## Analyst Ratings - **BUY**: Stock with potential return of **over 15%** over the next **12 months**. - **HOLD**: Stock with potential return of **+15% to -10%** over the next **12 months**. - **SELL**: Stock with potential loss of **over 10%** over the next **12 months**. - **NOT RATED**: Stock not rated by CMBIGM. - **OUTPERFORM**: Industry expected to **outperform** the relevant broad market benchmark. - **MARKET-PERFORM**: Industry expected to **perform in-line** with the relevant broad market benchmark. - **UNDERPERFORM**: Industry expected to **underperform** the relevant broad market benchmark. ## Stock Data | Metric | Value (HK$) | |---------------------------|------------| | Market Cap | 4,125,913.0 | | Avg 3 mths t/o | 14,437.6 | | 52w High/Low | 677.50/411.80 | | Total Issued Shares | 8,965.5 | | Source | FactSet | ## Shareholding Structure | Holder | Percentage | |----------------------------|------------| | MIH TC | 22.8% | | Advance Data Services Limited | 7.8% | | Source | HKEx | ## Share Performance | Period | Absolute (%) | Relative (%) | |--------------|--------------|--------------| | 1-mth | -1.2 | -0.2 | | 3-mth | -8.8 | -2.3 | | 6-mth | -24.7 | -18.3 | | Source | FactSet | ## Analyst Certification The research analyst certifies that: 1. 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