20231208-恒力期货-碳酸锂日报_5页

Carbonate Lithium Market Summary

• Market Direction: The carbonate lithium market is recommended for cautious observation due to high volatility; contracts showed strong increases but reversed, with LC2401, LC2404, and LC2407 posting significant percentage gains.

• Price Trend: Based on SMM data, battery-grade and industrial-grade carbonate lithium prices declined for 35 consecutive days; LC2407 contract closed at 95750元/吨 after a 245% increase. Spot prices for both grades and hydroxide variants also experienced downturns.

• Supply and Demand: Supply side shows weak outflow intentions from mines and salt producers due to low profitability, with potential inventory pressure, although actual spot prices saw a slight rebound. Demand remains focused on inventory clearance, with capacity utilization declining and no strong procurement anticipated in the short term.

• Key Factors: High attention on registration status of registration warehouse receipts; spot market dynamics, import/export data, and global developments like lithium resource discoveries in areas such as Australia and Uzbekistan. Also, company news like investments in lithium projects (e.g., Tianchi Materials and Green Technology Metals) and policy supports in regions like China add to market complexity.

• Recommendations: A short-term rebound is possible amid increased market participants and tighter positions, but excessive risk is noted. Advised to maintain a观望 attitude given supply-demand fundamentals and uncertainties.

• Market Events: A key highlight is the Lattanzio Equity and future ore events and discoveries; global filings emphasize China's dominance, while regional initiatives like green finance measures in Guangzhou encourage risk management tools. Stable prices reported for lithium ore and minerals from sources like lithium pegmatite. Ultimately, always trade with risk awareness.