CBRE-2020年亚太地区不动产年中报告（英文）-2020.10-16页_1mb

Asia-Pacific Real Estate Market Outlook 2020: Mid-Year Review Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the Asia-Pacific real estate market performance and outlook for the first half of 2020, with projections for the remainder of the year. It highlights the uneven recovery across different sectors and regions, the impact of the pandemic on economic activity and consumer behavior, and the evolving strategies of occupiers and investors in response to these challenges.

Main Points

Economic Outlook

• Recovery Progress: Most Asia-Pacific markets have lifted lockdowns, but the economic recovery remains uneven. New Zealand, Mainland China, Taiwan, and Vietnam are leading the recovery, while India lags behind.
• Key Drivers: Economic rebound is contingent on virus containment and vaccine development. Some markets, like Melbourne and Hong Kong SAR, have reintroduced local lockdowns or social distancing measures due to rising infection rates.
• Government Support: Authorities continue to implement measures to support economies and labor markets, such as Australia extending the JobKeeper scheme and Singapore planning job creation and training.
• GDP Projections: Mainland China's GDP growth turned positive in Q2 2020, with a forecast of 2.3% for the year. Australia and New Zealand also saw upgraded growth forecasts. Japan is expected to see a GDP contraction of -6%.
• Inflation and Interest Rates: Inflationary pressures remain limited, keeping interest rates at historical lows and supporting yield-accretable asset investments.

Office Market Outlook

• Net Absorption Decline: Office net absorption in H1 2020 fell by 34% y-o-y to 16.3 million sq. ft. NFA, the lowest in a decade.
• Regional Variance: Mainland China's tier I cities showed some recovery, while Tokyo and Indian cities experienced significant slowdowns. Hong Kong SAR had two consecutive quarters of negative absorption.
• Rental Trends: Grade A rents are expected to decline in 2020 due to weak demand and excess supply. Markets like Taipei and Japanese regional cities showed relative rental strength.
• Occupier Behavior: Occupiers are prioritizing cost-cutting, including space disposals and sub-leasing. Demand for tech and life sciences sectors remains strong.
• Portfolio Strategy Shifts: Remote work and de-densification are reshaping corporate real estate strategies. The hub-and-spoke model and flexible spaces are gaining prominence.

Retail Market Outlook

• Recovery Delays: The third wave of the pandemic has delayed retail recovery, with retail sales rebounding only in June but year-to-date growth still negative.
• Rental Decline: Regional retail rents are expected to fall sharply, with CBRE projecting a full-year decline of -30% to -35%.
• Market-Specific Trends: In Mainland China, tier 1 cities saw a modest rental decline, but upper floor units in malls experienced higher vacancy. In Tokyo, the full-year rental outlook was revised to -6.4%.
• E-commerce Growth: The rise of e-commerce has increased warehouse demand, especially for cold and mixed storage. Retailers are also reassessing their physical presence and digital engagement strategies.

Industrial & Logistics Market Outlook

• Strong Demand: Warehouse demand remains robust due to the surge in e-commerce and last-mile logistics needs.
• Supply Chain Shifts: Geopolitical tensions and the pandemic have prompted manufacturers to re-evaluate supply chains, favoring "China for China" and "China Plus One" strategies.
• Logistics Trends: Cold storage, last-mile facilities, and redeveloped warehouses are attracting significant investment. Data centres have become a mainstream investment class.
• Rental Growth: Most markets expect logistics rents to increase at or around 3.0%, with exceptions like Hong Kong SAR.

Key Trends to Watch

• Agility and Remote Work: Remote work is becoming a permanent part of corporate strategy. Occupiers are reconfiguring offices for social distancing and health safeguards.
• Sustainability and BCP: Business Continuity Planning and sustainability features are becoming priorities for occupiers, driving demand for well-located and well-equipped properties.
• E-commerce and Technology: E-commerce growth is reshaping retail and logistics demand, with a focus on online sales channels and fulfillment capabilities.
• Geopolitical Tensions: Escalating tensions between Mainland China and other countries are affecting business confidence and investment decisions.
• Investment Trends: Investment activity has declined due to weak fundamentals and price gaps. However, asset availability is expected to increase, supporting activity in H2 2020.

Capital Markets Outlook

• Investment Decline: Investment turnover in H1 2020 dropped by 36% y-o-y due to cautious underwriting and price gaps.
• Asset Availability: A wave of asset disposals and fund expirations is expected to increase available assets, especially in Australia and New Zealand.
• Yield Trends: Office and retail yields have expanded, while logistics yields remain stable. Investors are advised to focus on tenant quality and occupancy.
• Strategic Shifts: Investors are shifting towards structural and defensive plays, with a growing interest in logistics and business parks.

Rental Growth and Yields Forecast (2020)

Key Contacts

• Henry Chin, Ph.D. – Head of Research, APAC/EMEA
  henry.chin@cbre.com.hk

• Ada Choi, CFA – Head of Occupier Research, Asia Pacific
  ada.choi@cbre.com.hk

• Jonathan Hills – Senior Director, Asia Pacific
  jonathan.hills@cbre.com.hk

• Cynthia Chan – Office Specialist, Asia Pacific
  cynthia.chan@cbre.com.hk

• Liz Hung – Retail & Logistics Specialist, Asia Pacific
  liz.hung@cbre.com.hk

• Leo Chung, CFA – Capital Markets Specialist, Asia Pacific
  leo.chung@cbre.com.hk

• Marcos Chan – Head of Research, The Greater Bay Area & Hong Kong
  marcos.chan@cbre.com.hk

• Claire Choi – Head of Research, Korea
  claire.choi@cbre.com

• Dung Thuy Duong – Head of Research, Vietnam
  dung.duong@cbre.com

• Abhinav Joshi – Head of Research, India
  abhinav.joshi@cbre.co.in

• Rathawat Kuvijitruwan – Head of Research, Thailand
  rathawat.kuvijitruwan@cbre.co.th

• Ping Lee – Head of Research, Taiwan
  ping.lee@cbre.com

• Zoltan Moricz – Head of Research, New Zealand
  zoltan.moricz@cbre.co.nz

• Hiroshi Okubo – Head of Research, Japan
  hiroshi.okubo@cbre.co.jp

• Desmond Sim – Head of Research, Singapore and Southeast Asia
  desmond.sim@cbre.com.sg

• Bradley Speers – Head of Research, Australia
  bradley.speers@cbre.com.au

• Sam Xie – Head of Research, China
  sam.xie@cbre.com

• Garri Amiel Guarnes – Philippines Research

• James Hodge – Cambodia Research

• Martin Samuel Hutapea – Indonesia Research

• Aziah Mohd Yusoff – Malaysia Research