2018年-查塔姆研究所_Local_and_Regional_Politics_in_the_Ferghana_Valley_6页_230kb

2011/1 REP Event Summary: Local and Regional Politics in the Ferghana Valley

Core Content

The Ferghana Valley, a region spanning Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, is characterised by a complex mix of local and regional political dynamics. The area is one of the most densely populated in the former Soviet Union and has a long history of socio-economic and political tensions that can quickly escalate into violence.

Key Local Factors

• Economic and Social Dissatisfaction: Many residents feel economically and socially marginalised, with limited prospects unless they are well-connected.
• Corruption and Lack of Trust: There is a widespread perception of corruption and distrust in the political system.
• Minority Representation: Minority communities, such as the Uzbek community in Kyrgyzstan, often feel excluded from political and security institutions.
• Religious Movements: Youth in the region, particularly in Tajikistan, are becoming more religious, which is seen as a threat by the political elite.
• Counter-terrorism vs. Government Interference: Government actions under the guise of counter-terrorism are often viewed by local communities as excessive interference.

Regional Factors

• Border Tensions: Disputes over border demarcation and the risk of isolation during crises contribute to instability.
• Refugee Crisis: The 2010 Osh violence led to a significant influx of Uzbeks into Uzbekistan, with fears of border closures in future conflicts.
• Cross-Border Impact: Local tensions are perceived to have regional consequences, including concerns about the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
• Nationalism and Ethnic Identity: Nationalistic sentiments are on the rise, with ethnic identity increasingly used by politicians to consolidate power.
• Lack of Regional Cooperation: Post-Soviet state-building has made regional cooperation difficult, with states preferring nationalistic over multi-ethnic approaches.

Discussion Highlights

• Interpretation of Violence: The violence in Rasht was seen by locals as a threat from authorities, with underlying issues of political exclusion and corruption.
• Role of International Actors: The ICRC played a supportive role in the refugee crisis, respecting the Uzbekistani government's authority and aiding in the return of refugees.
• Bilateral vs. Multilateral Engagement: Engagement with Russia, particularly through the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, is considered crucial. Western approaches to civil society differ significantly from those in the region.
• National Identity and Religion: There is debate over whether the lack of national identity in Tajikistan led to the 1990s civil war, and whether religious identity could replace national identity in the future.
• Rebuilding Osh: Efforts to rebuild Osh after the 2010 violence include urban planning to promote inter-ethnic integration, though this has been met with local resistance.

Conclusion

The Ferghana Valley remains a volatile region with a high potential for violence. While local tensions are significant, they are not isolated and can have broader regional implications. The lack of a unified regional identity and the increasing use of nationalism by political elites exacerbate the situation. The speaker warned that minor events could trigger larger conflicts, particularly in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and that the region's stability depends on addressing underlying socio-economic and political grievances.