2024-12-06-Ericsson-2024年11月移动报告_40页_3mb

报告摘要

Ericsson Mobility Report Summary (November 2024)

Core Content

The Ericsson Mobility Report provides a comprehensive overview of the current and future state of the global mobile industry, emphasizing the transition to 5G standalone (SA) and the impact of generative AI (GenAI) on mobile data traffic and services. It highlights the growing adoption of 5G, the role of network slicing and RedCap in enabling new use cases, and the expansion of Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) as a key enabler of broadband access. The report also forecasts mobile data traffic growth and outlines the challenges and opportunities in different regions.

Main Forecast Highlights

5G Subscriptions:
- 5G subscriptions are expected to overtake 4G by 2027.
- By 2030, global 5G subscriptions will reach 6.3 billion, making up 67% of all mobile subscriptions.
- 5G SA subscriptions are projected to reach 3.6 billion by 2030, representing a significant portion of the 5G subscriber base.
- GCC will have the highest 5G penetration at 93% by 2030, followed by Western Europe at 92% and North America at 91%.
- India is expected to see 5G penetration reach 23% by end of 2024, with a projected 74% by 2030.
- North America will have 71% 5G penetration by end of 2024, with 91% expected by 2030.
5G Data Traffic:
- 5G is projected to carry 80% of all mobile data traffic by 2030.
- Mobile data traffic is expected to nearly triple by 2030 compared to current levels, with a CAGR of 19%.
- By end of 2024, 5G will account for 34% of mobile data traffic.
- Video traffic will make up 74% of mobile data traffic by the end of 2024.
5G Mid-Band Coverage:
- 40% of global 5G mid-band population coverage outside mainland China is expected by end of 2024.
- 30% of all sites globally outside mainland China have been upgraded to 5G mid-band.
- 85% of global 5G population coverage outside mainland China is projected by 2030.
- India and North America are leading in mid-band coverage, with India expected to reach 95% and North America 90% by 2024.
FWA Momentum:
- 79% of mobile service providers now offer Fixed Wireless Access (FWA).
- 54% of all FWA service providers use 5G.
- 43% of service providers offer speed-based tariff plans for FWA, indicating growing consumer acceptance.
- FWA is expected to complement fixed broadband and expand access in areas with limited infrastructure.

Key Technology Trends

Network Slicing:
- Service providers are using network slicing to offer differentiated connectivity services.
- Network slicing will be critical for monetizing 5G and enabling mission-critical applications.
- T-Mobile is implementing slicing in real-world scenarios, while Elisa and stc are also exploring its potential.
RedCap (Reduced Capability):
- RedCap is being adopted for affordable 5G devices, including USB dongles, wearables, and surveillance cameras.
- It is expected to support AI-powered cameras and XR applications.
- RedCap could also be integrated into AR glasses for future use cases.
GenAI Impact:
- GenAI is driving growth in smartphone usage, especially in high-end and low-end segments.
- AI functionality is now measured in tera operations per second (TOPS), not just in terms of data speed.
- GenAI is expected to influence traffic patterns and network slicing as it becomes more cloud-based.
- The impact on traffic remains uncertain, but potential for new services and user experiences is clear.
6G Outlook:
- 6G is expected to arrive in 2030, following the rollout of 5G SA and 5G Advanced.
- 6G will enable cyber-physical world integration, supporting AI, IoT, and digital airspace applications.

Regional Analysis

North America:
- 5G penetration reaches 71% by end of 2024.
- Mid-band coverage is expected to reach 90%.
- FWA is growing strongly, especially in urban areas.
Western Europe:
- 5G penetration is 41% by end of 2024, with Finland and the UK leading.
- 5G is expected to reach 92% penetration by 2030.
- 4G will decline in favor of 5G.
India:
- 5G subscriptions are projected to reach 270 million by end of 2024, with 23% penetration.
- 5G subscriptions are expected to grow to 970 million by 2030, making up 74% of mobile subscriptions.
- 4G will continue to be dominant, with 54% of total subscriptions.
Middle East and North Africa (MENA):
- Mobile subscriptions are expected to grow 2% annually to reach 830 million by 2030.
- Smartphone penetration is rising at 5% annually, driven by affordability and network expansion.
- 5G will represent 60% of total subscriptions by 2030.
GCC Countries:
- 5G subscriptions are expected to reach 95 million by 2030, with 93% penetration.
- Service providers are transforming into technology companies, offering AI and cloud-based services.
Sub-Saharan Africa:
- Mobile subscriptions are forecast to grow 4% annually until 2030.
- 5G will grow rapidly, with 59% annual increase in subscriptions.
- The region's young population and rising data demand are key drivers for growth.
South East Asia and Oceania:
- 5G subscriptions are expected to reach 680 million by 2030.
- Spectrum re-farming remains a challenge, especially in voice services.
- Vietnam launched 5G in October 2024.
Central and Eastern Europe:
- 5G subscriptions are expected to double during 2024, reaching 27 million.
- 4G will remain dominant at 86% penetration, but will decline as 5G adoption grows.
Latin America:
- 5G subscriptions are expected to reach 63 million by end of 2024, with 61% of mobile subscriptions by 2030.
- 5G spectrum auctions are progressing, with Mexico delaying until 2025.

Challenges and Opportunities

Network Sunsetting:
- 2G and 3G networks are being phased out globally.
- The global phase-out of 3G is expected to be faster than for 2G.
Infrastructure and Regulation:
- Spectrum allocation and network densification are critical for 5G SA and mid-band deployments.
- Regulatory support and infrastructure investment will be key for 5G adoption in emerging markets.
AI and GenAI:
- AI integration into devices is becoming more common, with performance metrics shifting from data speed to TOPS.
- GenAI could reshape traffic patterns and drive demand for differentiated services.
Digital Airspace:
- Cellular technology is being used to enable predictable and reliable connectivity for drones and mission-critical applications.
- Narrowband NTN (NB-NTN) is expected to support voice and messaging in the future.

Conclusion

The global mobile industry is transitioning rapidly toward 5G and beyond, with 5G SA and network slicing playing pivotal roles in enabling new services and monetization strategies. GenAI is expected to drive innovation and increase data usage, while FWA is becoming a key alternative to traditional broadband. Despite the slower growth rate of mobile data traffic, it is still projected to triple by 2030, with 5G mid-band and open, programmable networks being essential for unlocking the full potential of the technology.