CBRE+2023年柏林房地产市场报告-英-100页_7mb

Housing Market Report: Berlin 2023

Overview

• Challenges: High housing demand driven by population growth (Berlin’s largest city, 3.85 million people), but supply and affordability remain issues due to:
  • Rising construction costs and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and war in Ukraine.
  • Difficult economic conditions, including sharp increases in interest rates and energy prices.
• Key Issues: Median rents up 9.5% (€11.50/m²), purchase prices up 8.3% (€23.91/m²), and the city faces one of Europe’s widest rental-price gaps.

Population & Economic Context

• Growth: Projected net population gain of ~4,200 people in 2022 due to high net migration from abroad (including refugees) and strong job growth in tech and other industries (e.g., ~3.5% jobs in tech sector).
• Economic Shifts: COVID recovery and investment uncertainty increased restraint on the investment market, refocused on ESG/focus on sustainability.

Housing Supply & Demand

• Rental: 26,436 offers in 2023 show sustained growth, with moderate-to-low basic rents (€5.50–7.20/m²) in outer districts; prices in high-demand areas (e.g., Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf) reached €15.00+/m².
• Sales: Moderate price increases for new buildings in some districts (e.g., Lichtenberg +23.6% for rentals) but median asking prices remain stable overall.
• Districts: Treptow-Köpenick shows highest activity (+8,000 units planned); inner districts face tight supply even with new projects (+49.4% in Charlottenburg in 2018–2023).

New Construction

• Only 253 projects launched in Berlin in 2022 (+5,222 completed in 2018). Delays cause rising unit prices, with strong demand for rentals (+2,295 completions in 2022).

Extreme Measures & Climate Debate

• Expropriation Debate: Initiative to nationalize housing companies like Deutsche Wohnen for affordability, but legal challenges remain due to unprecedented nature.
• Climate Alignments: Green energy costs rising (CO2: €30 Euro/tonne) drive ESG debates (e.g., Kreisschmidt vs.
  • Berlin Green Deal); energy prices up by 72%.

Methodology & Key Players

• Technique: Uses medians of offers from 26,436 rentals and 51,840 sales to analyze affordability and supply trends.
• Partners:
  • CBRE: Market data, ESG advising.
  • Berlin Hyp AG: Infrastructure + policy insights.
  • Michael Bauer Research: Digital mapping and Wirtschaftswohnungen.
    Licensed disclaimer per current law.

This report is now published to provide balance to the market: affordable housing still a focus, but demand weakens investment capacity. The biggest challenge remains keeping pace with demand while modernizing infrastructure (public transport, green energy).