CBRE+2023爱尔兰房地产市场展望-50页_9mb

Ireland Real Estate Market Outlook 2023

Introduction

• The Irish real estate market demonstrated resilience in 2022 despite challenges like higher interest rates, inflation, and global economic uncertainty.
• Key factors: strong economic performance, stable government ratings, and continued attraction of foreign direct investment (FDI).
• Yields have expanded moderately, but remain relatively stable compared to other European markets due to Ireland's historically higher yields.

Market Overview

• Investment: Total investment volumes reached €6.0 billion in 2022, a 9% increase year-on-year. Residential (33%) and office (26%) were the most invested sectors, while healthcare (10%) saw its highest investment share ever.
• 2023 Outlook: Investment activity will slow in early 2023 but is expected to rebound as market stabilizes. Opportunity lies in value-add strategies, particularly in brown-to-green refurbishments and logistics.

By Sector

1. Multifamily/Residential:

   • Dublin faces acute rental demand and residential shortages.
   • Investment volumes may decrease in 2023 due to viability issues, but rental demand remains strong.
   • Guideline yields converged at 4.00% in Q4 2022 and may shift slightly outward in 2023.

2. Offices:

   • Hybrid working continues to reshape demand, with a bifurcation between "New, Clean & Green" offices and secondary stock.
   • Dublin's office market will exceed 50 million sq. ft. by end-2023, supporting sustained take-up.
   • Prime rents held steady at €700 per sq. m. (€65 per sq. ft.).

3. Industrial & Logistics (I&L):

   • Star performer in 2022, with record take-up (392,000 sq. m.) and rentals.
   • Logistics demand driven by e-commerce growth; prime rents at €123.75 per sq. m. (€11.50 per sq. ft.).
   • Sustainability a key factor, with pre-letting of Ireland's first net-zero carbon logistics building at Quantum Logistics Park.

4. Retail:

   • Retail leasing picked up in 2022, with high street and shopping centres benefiting from pent-up demand.
   • Supermarkets are among the strongest-performing retail categories.
   • Rent levels stable in 2023, though vacancy rates may rise slightly.

5. Healthcare:

   • Investment volumes reached a record €472 million in 2022.
   • Healthcare assets' defensive nature and inflation-linked rents make them attractive.

6. Hotels:

   • Strong performance driven by tourism and emergency accommodation demand.
   • Dublin's hotel vacancy is 11%, with prime yields at 4.25%.
   • Supply constrained, with minimal new beds planned.

7. Development & Land:

   • Land transactions rose 50% YoY to €980 million in 2022.
   • Focus shifting from build-to-rent (BTR) to build-to-sell residential due to higher financing costs.
   • Cork's market also shows strong investment activity.

Sustainability

• Sustainability is becoming embedded in real estate decision-making, with demand for LEED/BREEAM certifications growing.
• Green premiums emerge in certain sectors, particularly office and hospitality, with sustainability driving a bifurcation in asset values.

Key Economic Data (2023)

• Ireland's economy is expected to grow at 2.3%, outperforming the Eurozone.
• Inflation is projected to stabilize, though energy prices are expected to decrease by 11% year-on-year.
• The European Central Bank's main refinancing rate is expected to peak at 3.25% in 2023.

Key Takeaways

• Ireland's real estate market retains its position as an attractive investment destination within Europe.
• Yields are expected to stabilize by mid-2023, with further expansion likely to be moderate.
• Residential and logistics sectors remain key growth areas, while sustainability will significantly shape future asset performance.

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**Ireland Real Estate Market Outlook 2023**

### Summary of Key Insights
1. **Market Resilience**: Ireland's real estate market proved resilient in 2022, with investments reaching €6.0 billion amid global uncertainties. Compared to other European countries, Ireland's market corrections were proportionally milder due to historically higher yields.

2. **Economic Drivers**: Ireland's strong economic performance, fiscal discipline, and population growth (5.1 million) underpin real estate demand. The country attracted significant inward investment in 2022, including from multinational corporations.

3. **Sector Highlights**:
   - **Industrial & Logistics**: Led 2022 performance, driven by e-commerce growth and robust leasing activity. Dublin's logistics market remains undersupplied, with new developments incorporating sustainability.
   - **Multifamily/Residential**: Faces severe rental demand but investment volumes may moderate in 2023. Forward-structured transactions continued, reflecting institutional appetite for Dublin's undersupplied market.
   - **Healthcare**: Recorded its highest investment volumes ever, benefiting from defensive characteristics.
   - **Hotels**: Experienced exceptional trading performance due to pent-up tourism and emergency accommodation demand. Yields are expected to soften moderately in 2023.

4. **Sustainability**: Increasingly influential, with demand for sustainable buildings growing. Sustainability credentials now affect asset pricing and occupier decisions.

5. **Opportunities in 2023**:
   - Investment opportunities likely emerge from value-add strategies, including brown-to-green refurbishments.
   - Healthcare and logistics sectors are expected to remain strong, supported by their defensive characteristics and alignment with long-term growth trends.
   - Residential investment volumes may decline, but rental demand is expected to remain resilient in Dublin.

6. **Challenges**: Elevated financing costs, supply constraints in residential and office sectors, and evolving sustainability regulations pose challenges. Land market dynamics and viability concerns for BTR projects remain key considerations.

### Outlook for 2023
- Market stabilization expected through 2023 as inflation and interest rates may stabilize by mid-year.
- Investment activity may rebound later in the year, driven by long-term strategies and opportunities created by market adjustments.
- Sustainability will be a defining factor in asset selection, driving bifurcation between green and non-green assets.

This summary highlights Ireland's position as a resilient real estate destination and outlines key trends shaping investment decisions for 2023.