2003年-世界发展银行全球_Migration_and_Human_Capital_in_Brazil_during_the_1990s_47页_2mb

Summary: Migration and Human Capital in Brazil during the 1990s

Core Content

This working paper examines migration patterns and their implications for human capital and regional development in Brazil during the 1990s, focusing on the movement between the Northeast (NE) and Southeast (SE) regions.

Main Purpose

The primary goal of the paper is to analyze how migration between the NE and SE has affected the well-being of the NE region, with a particular emphasis on the characteristics of migrants, the direction of migration flows, and the economic determinants of migration.

Key Findings

• Migration Trends: Over 40% of Brazilians have migrated at some point in their lives. Historically, the NE has been a major source of out-migration to the SE, where economic conditions are more favorable. However, in recent years, a significant number of people have moved from the SE to the NE, indicating a shift in migration patterns.
• Regional Disparities: The SE has a significantly higher per-capita GDP and lower poverty rates compared to the NE. In 1999, the NE's poverty rate was 44.3%, while São Paulo had only 8.5%. The SE also has a higher concentration of skilled labor and better economic opportunities.
• Migration Characteristics:
  • Age and Gender: NE-SE migrants tend to be older than SE-NE migrants, but the difference is not large. Males are more likely to migrate than females, with over 75% of NE-SE migrant households being male-headed, and even higher proportions for SE-NE migrants.
  • Race: White individuals dominate NE-SE migration, but this trend has weakened in recent years. Non-white populations, particularly mulattos and blacks, are increasingly migrating to the SE.
  • Education: Migrants from the SE to the NE are generally less educated and poorer than the average SE resident, while NE-SE migrants are more educated and financially better off than the average NE resident.
• Migration Returns: The returns to migration are increasing with education for SE-NE migrants and decreasing for NE-SE migrants. Between 1995 and 1999, this trend reversed, with NE-SE migration returns declining and SE-NE migration returns increasing, which helps explain the changing migration dynamics.
• Economic Impact: Migration can benefit both sending and receiving regions. The SE benefits from the inflow of skilled and unskilled labor, while the NE benefits from wage increases and remittances. However, migration has not led to equalization of real regional incomes, which may be due to market failures, regional disparities in economic opportunities, or non-monetary factors influencing migration decisions.
• Policy Implications: Understanding migration patterns and the characteristics of migrant households is essential for designing effective public policies. Migration data can inform decisions on public expenditure, investment, and labor market policies, especially in regions with significant out-migration or in-migration.

Key Data and Statistics

• Population and Migration:
  • In 1998, the NE had a population of 47.7 million (28% of Brazil's total population).
  • In 1999, about 33.5 million Brazilians had a history of inter-state migration.
  • The SE is the main recipient of migrants, with over 11 million people migrating to it in the last 10 years.
• Migration Flows:
  • NE-SE migration accounted for 18% of all Brazilian migrants.
  • SE-NE migration accounted for 8% of all Brazilian migrants.
• Poverty and Income:
  • The NE has a much higher poverty rate than the SE.
  • Migrants from the SE to the NE are on average poorer and less educated than the SE average.
  • Migrants from the NE to the SE are more educated and financially better off than the NE average.

Conclusion

The paper highlights the complex relationship between migration and human capital in Brazil, showing that migration is influenced by both economic and non-economic factors. While migration has historically been a tool for regional development, the recent shift in migration patterns suggests that new challenges and opportunities are emerging. Policymakers must consider these dynamics to effectively support regional development and improve the well-being of migrant households.