2025-06-04-Jefferies-2025年6月4日印度金融日报_13页_835kb

报告摘要

Nifty closed 0.7% lower, Nifty Bank closed 0.5% lower on June 3.
Top performers included Dolat Algotech (+3.6%) and Authum Investment Infrastructure (+3.6%).
Bottom performers included ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (-3.5%), Indian Overseas Bank (-3.6%), Indostar Capital Finance (-5.8%), and Aptus Value Housing Finance (-8.8%).
Both indices saw a 1% rise over the past month.

System Liquidity: Surplus liquidity estimated at ~Rs 3 trillion.
Money Market Rates:
* Call rate: 5.8%
* 3M CD rate: 6.1%
* 10Y Gsec yield: 6.3%
* 1Yr AAA Corp yield: 6.7%

Foreign Ownership in Banks: RBI exploring easing rules to allow larger foreign stakes (currently up to 74% collective, 15% single foreign investor). This could attract higher foreign participation.
SEBI Meeting (June 18): Will review key reforms including clearing corporation ownership norms (SEBI prefers demerger, exchanges oppose).
Bank Deposits/Credit Trends:
* Metro city deposits share (53%) increased while their credit share (58%) decreased; banks preferred personal loans.
* Corporate loan-to-total loan ratio declined from ~42% to ~48%.
* 4QFY25 bank credit growth decelerated to 10% YoY (previously around 12-13%).
Moody's Warning: Rising vehicle loan delinquencies in Indian banks, driven by pandemic pent-up demand dissipating; 2-wheeler loans more vulnerable.
Theft: ~Rs 530mn (59kg gold + ~Rs 0.5mn cash) stolen from Canara Bank's branch.

Lenders:
* Mostly "Buy" recommendations for large private banks (HDFC, ICICI, Axis, Kotak, IndusInd, IDFC First, Bandhan), PSU banks (SBI, PNB) and select NBFCs/Housing Finance companies (LIC HF, Shriram, Bajaj Finance, Aptus, Can Fin, Manappuram).
* "Hold" for BOB, MMFS. "Underperform" for Piramal Enterprises.
Insurers: Mostly "Buy" recommended for Life (HDFC Life, SBI Life, Max Financial, ICICI Pru Life) and General Insurers (ICICI Lombard, Go Digit).
AMCs & Fintechs: "Buy" for HDFC AMC, Nuvama. Holdings mixed for Paytm.
Exchanges/Wealth Mgmt: "Hold" for BSE.