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Summary of REMAP 2030: Renewable Energy Prospects for Poland

Core Content

IRENA's REmap 2030 report provides an analysis of Poland's renewable energy potential up to 2030, comparing it with the Reference Case, which represents the business-as-usual scenario. The report highlights the role of renewable energy in achieving sustainable development, energy security, and reducing carbon emissions in Poland.

Main Findings

• Renewable Energy Share in 2010:

  • Renewable energy accounted for 10.1% of total final energy consumption (TFEC) in 2010.
  • Biomass dominated renewable energy use, representing 90% of total final renewable energy use, equivalent to 284 PJ.
  • Biomass was primarily used for space/water heating and process heat in buildings and industry, accounting for 75% of total biomass use.

• Reference Case Projections (2010–2030):

  • Renewable energy share in TFEC is expected to reach 14.2% by 2020.
  • In 2030, it is projected to increase to 15.5% in TFEC and 16.4% in gross final energy consumption (GFEC).
  • Total final renewable energy use is expected to more than double from 284 PJ in 2010 to 531 PJ in 2030.
  • Renewable electricity from hydropower and wind accounts for 10% of total final renewable energy use in 2010, with wind showing significant growth.

• REmap 2030 Projections (2030):

  • Renewable energy share in TFEC is estimated to reach 24.7%, equivalent to 25.9% in GFEC.
  • The building sector sees the highest renewable energy share, increasing from 10.1% to 34.8%.
  • Industry and transport also show substantial growth, reaching 23.6% and 12.4% respectively.
  • Renewable power generation is projected to increase from 11 TWh in 2010 to 81.5 TWh in 2030.
  • Wind power is expected to grow from 0.8 GW to 16.4 GW (onshore and offshore).
  • Solar PV is projected to reach 5 GW, with rooftop PV at 0.3 GW.
  • Bioenergy capacity is expected to be 5.2 GW in 2030.

• Biomass Demand in REmap 2030:

  • Annual biomass demand is estimated at 820 PJ, which is lower than the supply potential (1200–1550 PJ).
  • This indicates a favorable resource availability and reduced import dependency.
  • Deployment of biomass depends on its cost-competitiveness.

• Investment Needs:

  • Annual investment for REmap 2030 is estimated at USD 4.5 billion, which is more than twice the investment required for the Reference Case (USD 2 billion).
  • The net incremental system costs in 2030 are USD 3.1 billion from a government perspective.

• Substitution Costs:

  • From a business perspective, the average substitution cost is USD 4.9/GJ.
  • From a government perspective, it is USD 10.3/GJ, with district heating being the most expensive (USD 13.8/GJ) and transport showing cost savings (USD -4.2/GJ).
  • These costs reflect the difference between renewable and conventional energy sources.

• CO₂ Emissions Reduction:

  • REmap 2030 could reduce CO₂ emissions by 52 Mt/year, leading to a 17.3% decrease compared to the Reference Case.
  • This is 8% below 2005 levels and 22% below 1990 levels.
  • Accounting for externalities (health and climate), renewable energy could save up to USD 2 billion annually by 2030, compared to USD 3.1 billion in net incremental costs.

Key Technologies and Their Potential

• Wind Power:

  • The largest potential among non-biomass renewables.
  • Limited by few high-wind locations, but offshore offers better wind speeds.
  • Offshore wind has twice the capital cost of onshore wind.

• Solar PV:

  • Projected to reach 5 GW in 2030.
  • Includes rooftop solar at 0.3 GW.

• Biomass:

  • Dominates renewable energy use in end-use sectors.
  • Has high supply potential (1200–1550 PJ/year), but its deployment depends on cost-competitiveness.

• Geothermal and Hydropower:

  • Also part of the renewable mix but with limited potential compared to wind and solar.

Challenges and Opportunities

• Grid Integration:

  • A key requirement for renewable power expansion.
  • Existing interconnections are underutilized, and projects like the Baltic Ring and supergrid could help manage variable renewable energy.

• Policy and Market Mechanisms:

  • The Renewable Energy Act, auctions, and feed-in tariffs are highlighted as important policy tools.
  • Poland's NREAP serves as the baseline for renewable energy targets up to 2030.

• Cost and Affordability:

  • Natural gas is nearly three times more expensive than coal, so replacing coal with natural gas in heating could lead to lower net incremental costs (USD 2.6 billion vs USD 3.1 billion).

• Externalities:

  • The report evaluates greenhouse gas reductions and air pollution improvements.
  • External costs are calculated using IPCC emission factors and health impact assessments.

Conclusion

The REmap 2030 study outlines a realistic and achievable pathway for Poland to significantly increase its renewable energy share by 2030. It emphasizes the importance of policy support, technological advancements, and infrastructure development, particularly in grid expansion and fuel supply chain optimization. The study also highlights the economic and environmental benefits of renewable energy, especially in reducing CO₂ emissions and external costs, and provides a comprehensive cost-supply analysis from both government and business perspectives.

Key Points

• Renewable energy is the main solution to reduce fossil fuel dependency and emissions.
• Biomass remains the largest contributor, but wind and solar show significant growth potential.
• Investment needs are substantial but cost-effective when considering long-term benefits.
• Grid development is critical for integrating variable renewable sources.
• REmap 2030 offers a realistic roadmap for Poland to meet its 2030 energy and climate goals.