牛津经济研究院-英国绿色增长指数（英）-2021.9_65页_1mb

UK Green Growth Index Summary

Core Content

The UK Green Growth Index report, published by Oxford Economics for Lloyds Banking Group in September 2021, examines the challenges and opportunities associated with the UK's transition to a net zero economy across its nations and regions. The report outlines the economic implications of this transition, highlighting the need for significant investment and the potential for green growth in various parts of the UK.

The UK has committed to reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by 100% by 2050, and the Climate Change Committee estimates that this will require an investment of £1.4 trillion between 2020 and 2050, with an average of £50 billion per year from 2025 onwards. This investment will be necessary in sectors such as low-carbon power, transport electrification, and home insulation.

The report introduces two key indices:

• Green Growth Challenge Index: Measures the potential for economic disruption due to the net zero transition.
• Green Growth Opportunity Index: Measures the potential for green growth based on existing and future conditions.

These indices are built on a set of themes and indicators, which help to assess how different regions may be affected by the transition.

Main Points

Green Growth Challenge Index

• Wales and Northern Ireland face the greatest challenges, due to their high dependence on carbon-intensive industries and higher emissions rates.
• Yorkshire and the Humber and the Midlands also show high levels of challenge, with the former having high fossil fuel generating capacity and the latter showing significant reliance on upskilling.
• London has the lowest challenge index, due to its service-oriented economy, low reliance on industry, and lower household and transport emissions.
• Southern and Eastern England (e.g., South East and South West) are relatively well placed to manage the transition due to lower dependence on carbon-intensive industries and lower emissions rates.

Green Growth Opportunity Index

• Scotland has the strongest green growth opportunities, with a significant base of green economy jobs (around 21,000), a high concentration of higher education students in green-related fields, and a well-developed renewable energy infrastructure.
• Wales also shows strong potential for green growth, with above-average green economy jobs and high renewable energy adoption, although it may need to strengthen its innovation ecosystem.
• London, despite its high density of electric vehicle charging points, is relatively limited in green growth opportunities in the energy and manufacturing sectors, due to low renewable energy capacity.
• Other regions in England vary in their potential to capitalise on green growth, with some areas showing greater readiness than others.

Key Information

• The UK Green Growth Index is based on sub-national data sets, and includes indicators such as:

  • Dependence on carbon-intensive industry
  • Emissions levels
  • Fossil fuel power infrastructure
  • Base of green industry
  • Innovation
  • Skills and training
  • Renewable energy adoption

• The indices are normalised, aggregated, and weighted, with a value of 50 representing the UK average. A value of 25 or 75 indicates one standard deviation from the average.

• Uncertainty remains about the exact trajectory of the net zero transition, but the index provides a framework for understanding regional differences in exposure and opportunity.

• Lloyds Banking Group is committed to supporting regional regeneration to ensure no part of the UK is left behind in the green transition.

Structure of the Report

• Executive Summary: Outlines the overall goals and key findings of the report.
• Introduction: Sets the context of the net zero transition and the purpose of the study.
• Developing a UK Green Growth Index: Explains the conceptual framework, themes, and indicators used to build the index.
• Results across Nations and Regions: Provides a comparative overview of the challenge and opportunity indices for each region.
• Detailed regional analysis: Each chapter offers a specific assessment of the challenges and opportunities for a given region.
• Appendices: Include methodology, indicators, data sources, and further details on the construction of the indices.

Conclusion

The report underscores the divergent impacts of the net zero transition across the UK. It highlights the importance of skills, innovation, and existing green industry bases in determining a region's ability to adapt to and benefit from the green economy. The UK Green Growth Index serves as a tool for policy and business decision-making, helping to identify regions that are more vulnerable or more prepared for the transition.

By understanding these differences, stakeholders can target support and investment more effectively to maximise green growth and minimise disruption.