牛津经济研究院-英国人造肉（培养肉）的社会经济影响（英）-2021.9-36页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of the Socio-Economic Impact of Cultivated Meat in the UK

Core Content

This report by Oxford Economics assesses the potential socio-economic impact of the cultivated meat industry in the UK, focusing on its economic contribution, employment effects, and broader social and environmental benefits. It is prepared for Ivy Farm Technologies Ltd and outlines the implications of regulatory decisions and market development in the context of global demand and sustainability goals.

Main Findings

Economic Contribution

The cultivated meat industry is projected to contribute £1.1 to £2.1 billion to UK GDP in 2030.
£290 million to £574 million of this contribution will be generated directly by the industry.
The remaining is expected to be stimulated through:
- Indirect contributions from the industry's procurement of goods and services from the UK supply chain (£414 million to £829 million).
- Induced contributions from wage spending by industry workers and their supply chain counterparts (£369 million to £738 million).
The GDP multiplier for the cultivated meat industry in 2030 is 3.7, meaning for every £1 million of gross value added, an additional £2.7 million is expected to be supported in the UK economy.

Employment Impact

The industry is expected to support 9,200 to 16,500 jobs in the UK in 2030.
4,400 to 8,300 of these jobs will be directly in the cultivated meat industry.
The remaining 4,800 to 8,200 jobs will be supported by the industry's spending on goods and services and wage payments.
The employment multiplier is 2, indicating that for every 100 jobs in the industry, an additional 100 jobs are likely to be supported in the broader UK economy.

Productivity

Workers in the cultivated meat production and processing sectors are expected to generate significantly higher productivity than the average UK worker or those in the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sector.
£135,000 to £104,000 GVA per worker in the cultivated meat sector.
£44,000 to £76,000 GVA per worker in the agriculture sector.
This is due to the higher skill level of workers in the cultivated meat industry, such as scientists and technologists.

Tax Revenue

The cultivated meat industry is expected to generate £266 to £523 million in tax revenues in 2030.
These tax revenues could potentially cover the annual salaries of 5,000 to 10,000 teachers or 6,000 to 12,000 nurses in the UK.

Displacement Effects

The economic footprint is calculated on a gross basis, meaning it does not account for displacement effects.
The UK is currently highly reliant on meat imports, with 60% of pork and 35% of beef sourced from abroad.
Cultivated meat production could reduce the need for imports and support domestic food production, enhancing food security.

First Mover Advantage

Key Points

First mover advantage is a critical factor in the cultivated meat industry.
Early regulatory approval in the UK could enable domestic firms to establish a competitive edge in the global market.
It would allow firms to leverage existing knowledge and networks, and anticipate market openings.
The UK could benefit from knowledge spillovers and technological innovation, enhancing its agri-tech ecosystem.

Implications for UK plc

The industry's growth could lead to increased exports, repatriated profits, and technological spillover.
It aligns with the UK's government policy objectives, including net zero, obesity reduction, and the development of a research-intensive economy.

Social and Environmental Benefits

Environmental Impact

Cultivated meat production is expected to result in 29% to 93% less air pollution (particulate matter formation) compared to conventional meat.
It uses 63% to 95% less land, contributing to carbon balance restoration.
It also reduces transportation and refrigeration costs, and waste management.

Health Benefits

Cultivated meat helps avoid infections from contamination and slaughter.
It can replace saturated fats in processed meat products with healthier fats like Omega-3 and Omega-6.
It also reduces the use of antibiotics, lowering the risk of antimicrobial resistance.

Food Security

Local production of cultivated meat enhances resilience against global supply chain shocks, such as those seen during the Coronavirus pandemic.
It reduces reliance on imported meat, especially from post-Brexit trade uncertainties.

Animal Welfare

Cultivated meat is produced through painless biopsies, eliminating the need for intensive farming methods.
Local production ensures UK consumers can be assured of high animal welfare standards, which may be difficult to verify for imported meat.

Conclusion

The cultivated meat industry is in its infancy globally, but presents significant opportunities for the UK.
The UK is well-positioned to lead in the global agri-tech race if it secures early regulatory approval.
The industry's growth is aligned with national policy goals, offering economic, social, and environmental benefits.
While there may be some economic losers, the immediate impact on the traditional agriculture sector is expected to be minimal this decade.
The potential for long-term growth and positive societal impact makes the cultivated meat industry a strategic investment for the UK.