【硅谷银行】2025年上半年全球基金银行业展望报告影响私募股权和风险投资的趋势_26页_1mb

Summary of Global Fund Banking Outlook Report H1 2025

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the current and expected trends in the private markets, focusing on fundraising, exit markets, and tax considerations for private funds. It outlines the challenges and opportunities fund managers and limited partners (LPs) face in the evolving economic and regulatory landscape.

Main Points

Fundraising Outlook

• Cautious and Divided: Fundraising conditions remain difficult, with most fund managers expecting the environment to stay challenging. However, about 30% are more optimistic, citing sustained LP interest and strong past performance.
• Challenges: Prolonged weak exit markets, macroeconomic headwinds, and fierce competition for LP dollars are the primary concerns.
• LP Preferences: LPs are showing renewed interest in early-stage VC, with 71% expressing this preference. Buyouts are also a favored asset class.
• Fund Size and LP Count: Fund sizes are trending downward, and the number of LPs per fund has decreased. However, there is a growing interest in emerging managers and HNWs.
• International LPs: US funds are increasingly attracting international LPs, especially from Asia and the Middle East, seeking stability amid uncertainty.

Exit Markets

• Depressed Conditions: Exit markets remain weak, with IPOs, buyouts, and M&A activity at their lowest levels in years.
• Alternative Liquidity Solutions: GPs are relying more on continuation funds and NAV loans to manage liquidity, though these are not sufficient to offset the stalled exit market.
• Portfolio Company Struggles: Distressed VC-backed companies are finding fewer acquirers, and bankruptcies are on the rise, approaching levels seen during the height of the pandemic.

Tax Considerations

• Tax Team Composition: Most private funds do not have in-house tax professionals. Nearly 75% of surveyed firms have no dedicated tax team, while larger firms tend to have more.
• Outsourcing Trends: Over 90% of firms outsource at least half of their tax work, with a third outsourcing all of it. This is due to the complexity of transactions, cross-border activity, and evolving fund structures.
• Tax Team Experience: Tax teams are typically composed of senior professionals with over a decade of experience.
• AI Adoption: There are no immediate plans for AI adoption in tax management, due to concerns over data security and uncertainty about its value.
• Regulatory Environment: Firms expect regulatory changes under the Trump administration, particularly in tax rates and sector-specific incentives. Despite this, tax head count is projected to remain flat in 2025.

Key Information

Fundraising

• HNWs and Retail Investors: HNWs and retail investors are emerging as potential growth areas for fundraising, with their numbers increasing.
• Emerging Managers: There is a slow but growing return to emerging managers, with many LPs planning to deny re-ups to existing managers.
• Fund Evolution: The transition from first to subsequent funds often involves a shift from HNWs to institutional LPs, reflecting the firm's growth and institutionalization.

Exit Markets

• Liquidity Challenges: With exits in decline, fund managers are turning to alternative liquidity solutions.
• Continuation Funds and NAV Loans: These are becoming more common but are not a complete solution to liquidity issues.
• Portfolio Company Bankruptcies: The number of bankruptcies among PE and VC portfolio companies is rising, nearing pandemic levels.

Tax Management

• Tax Team Establishment: The right time to establish a tax team is when tax work becomes inefficient and firms need more proactive management.
• Outsourcing: Firms rely heavily on external tax professionals for complex work, though they are also looking to build internal capabilities.
• SEC Examinations: The SEC has increased its scrutiny, and private funds, especially fast-growing VCs, are advised to prepare for potential examinations by focusing on document accuracy, transparency, and compliance.

Conclusion

The private markets are navigating a challenging landscape marked by macroeconomic uncertainty, weak exit markets, and evolving regulatory and tax environments. While fundraising remains difficult, there are signs of renewed interest from certain LP segments. Firms are increasingly turning to alternative liquidity strategies and tax outsourcing, but are also recognizing the need for a more structured and proactive approach to tax management. The report highlights the importance of maintaining a strong track record, adapting to LP preferences, and preparing for SEC examinations to ensure long-term success and stability.