欧洲对外关系委员会-阿拉伯海湾国家可以从伊朗对伊拉克的态度中学到什么（英文）-2021.5-26页_153kb

Summary: The Gulf Between Them – The Approach to Iraq by Iran and Arab Gulf States

Core Content

The document compares the approaches of Iran and Arab Gulf states to Iraq, highlighting the differences in their strategies, the impact of their involvement, and the implications for regional stability and European interests.

Main Views

• Iran's Strategic Approach to Iraq
  Iran has a long-standing and deep-rooted relationship with Iraq, particularly with Shia political factions. Its approach is characterized by:

  • Pragmatism and Flexibility: Iran maintains a pragmatic and realist strategy, engaging with a wide range of Iraqi political actors, including those who may appear to be anti-Iranian.
  • Security and Influence: Iran supports Iraqi armed groups, such as the Popular Mobilisation Units (PMUs), to counter Western interests and maintain strategic influence. It also seeks to control the Iraqi military and security institutions.
  • Economic Ties: Iran has extensive economic ties with Iraq, including energy trade and smuggling. It views Iraq as a key market for its oil exports and a conduit for economic power in the region.
  • Soft Power and Cultural Influence: Iran uses soft power, including religious and cultural ties, to strengthen its position in Iraq. However, this also generates public resentment, especially among Sunnis.
  • Political Leverage: Iran's influence is maintained through its ability to broker agreements and provide support to Iraqi politicians, often behind the scenes.

• Gulf States' Approach to Iraq
  Arab Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, have a more cautious and strategic approach to Iraq, driven by:

  • Security Concerns: They view Iran's growing influence in Iraq as a threat to their own security, especially after the 2019-2020 attacks on Saudi facilities.
  • Political Neutrality: Gulf states aim to maintain independence in their foreign policy and avoid direct interference in Iraqi internal affairs.
  • Economic Engagement: They have pursued economic projects with Iraq, but these have often been hindered by the inefficiency of the Iraqi bureaucracy and lack of political cooperation.
  • Diplomatic Efforts: Gulf states have engaged in diplomatic initiatives, such as the Kuwait reconstruction conference, to rebuild relations and provide aid to Iraq.

Key Differences

• Iran's Deep Involvement: Iran is deeply embedded in Iraqi politics, security, and economy, using a combination of hard and soft power to influence the country.
• Gulf's Cautious Engagement: Gulf states are more cautious, focusing on security and economic interests while avoiding direct political involvement.
• Public Perception: The Iraqi public, especially Sunnis, has grown increasingly wary of Iranian influence, which has allowed Gulf states to position themselves as potential partners.
• European Interests: European states, including the EU, see the diversification of Iraq's regional relationships as beneficial, as it could lead to more stable and cooperative political and economic dynamics.

Critical Developments

• Abadi Government's Shift: The Abadi government marked a shift in Iraq's relationship with the Gulf, aiming for balanced relations with both the Gulf and Iran. This led to increased diplomatic engagement and a more positive outlook from Gulf states.
• ISIS and Regional Dynamics: The rise of ISIS prompted Gulf states to reassess their security priorities and engage more actively in the fight against the group.
• Trump's Maximum Pressure Campaign: The US imposed heavy sanctions on Iran, which affected its ability to provide support to Iraq. This led to a deterioration in Iran-Iraq relations and increased tensions.
• Protest Movement: The 2019-2020 protest movement in Iraq, which targeted Iranian-backed actors, significantly weakened Iran's influence and exposed the vulnerabilities of its support network.

Conclusion

The document underscores the complex and evolving relationship between Iran and the Arab Gulf states with Iraq. While Iran maintains a strong, often covert, influence, Gulf states are seeking to build more transparent and mutually beneficial relationships. The diversification of Iraq's regional ties is seen as beneficial for European interests, as it could lead to a more stable and cooperative Iraq.