2009年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Survey_of_Private_Sector_Trade_Credit_Developments_9页_357kb

Summary of the IMF Survey on Private Sector Trade Credit Developments

Core Content

This document presents the findings of a survey conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in collaboration with the Bankers Associations for Finance and Trade (BAFT), focusing on developments in private sector trade credit in major advanced and emerging market banks. The survey was carried out in October-November 2008, comparing conditions with the same period in 2007 and assessing expectations for the next year.

Main Points

Global Trends in Trade Finance

• The cost of trade finance has increased globally.
• Price increases: Over 70% of respondents reported higher pricing for letters of credit, while nearly 90% indicated higher pricing for short-term and medium-term trade-related lending.
• Spreads over LIBOR have increased by 25 to 300 bps per annum, with some reporting up to 600 bps.

Reasons for Increased Costs

• Higher cost of funds: 80% of respondents attributed increased costs to this factor.
• Increased capital requirements: 60% of respondents cited this as a contributing factor.
• Rising counterparty risk: Both advanced and emerging market banks reported tightened lending criteria due to heightened risk perceptions, particularly in countries like Argentina, the Baltic States, and others.

Impact on Trade Finance Volume

• Emerging markets: Banks report a 6% decline in the volume of trade finance transactions (documentary credits, guarantees, and letters of credit) compared to 2007.
• Advanced countries: No significant change in transaction volume was observed.
• Short-term trade lending: Emerging market banks expect an 8% drop in volume, while advanced country banks expect stability.

Regional and Sectoral Impacts

• Emerging Asia: Trade finance to and from this region has been particularly affected.
• Commodities vs. Manufactured goods:
  • Commodities: Higher risk and fluctuating prices may increase the use of bank-intermediated finance.
  • Manufactured goods with low margins: Increased costs may reduce demand for trade finance.
  • Manufactured goods with high margins: May absorb higher costs, but non-essential purchases may decline.

Bank Responses to Risk

• Risk management practices: Banks are adopting more stringent measures, such as:
  • Expanded insurance
  • Shorter maturities and stronger covenants
  • Higher cash deposits or collateral
  • Relationship-based lending
• Shift in trade terms: Many are moving from open account terms to more secure instruments like letters of credit and cash-in-advance.

Expectations for the Future

• Most banks expect current pricing trends to continue.
• Official sector role: There is a strong belief that governments and multilateral institutions should play a more active role by:
  • Providing more trade guarantees
  • Increasing financial resources
  • Improving export insurance processes
• Regulatory considerations: Reviewing Basel II capital requirements and discouraging late payments and collusion in the trade finance market are suggested.

Key Information

• Survey Scope: Questionnaires were sent to 40 banks (20 from advanced countries, 20 from emerging markets).
• Data Gaps: There is limited hard data on trade finance, making it difficult to fully analyze market conditions.
• Trade Finance Instruments: The survey focuses on bank-intermediated instruments such as letters of credit and trade lending, excluding open account and cash-in-advance arrangements.
• Future Outlook: Some banks suggest that spread increases may reverse once demand recovers, and that sector consolidation could lead to higher trade finance volumes in the future.

Appendix Highlights

• Trade finance can be structured in various ways, depending on trust levels and financing needs.
• Common instruments include:
  • Letters of Credit (LCs): Certify payment, may involve post-financing or preapproval.
  • Document collection: Payment occurs upon receipt of goods, not necessarily involving credit.
  • Trade lending: Short or medium-term credit secured by goods or discounted LCs.
  • Guarantees and confirmations: Provide security and mitigate counterparty risk.

Conclusion

The survey underscores the significant impact of the global financial crisis on trade finance, particularly in emerging markets. While the cost of trade finance has risen due to increased risk, capital requirements, and funding costs, the volume of trade finance has declined in emerging markets. The role of the official sector in stabilizing trade finance is emphasized, along with the need for regulatory reforms to address the evolving landscape.