2009年-世界发展银行全球_Trade_and_Trade_Finance_Developments_in_14_Developing_Countries_Post_September_2008___A_World_Bank_Survey_42页_1mb

Summary of Trade and Trade Finance Developments in 14 Developing Countries Post September 2008

Core Content

This paper presents the findings of a World Bank survey conducted in March–April 2009, examining trade and trade finance developments in 14 developing countries following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. The survey included 425 firms and 78 banks across five regions, aiming to understand the impact of the global financial crisis on trade finance and trade flows, and the policy responses by governments and international organizations.

Main Findings

Trade Developments

• Global Trade Decline: The global financial crisis led to an unprecedented synchronized decline in trade, with the World Bank projecting a 9.7% drop in goods and services trade in 2009.
• Export and Import Trends: Merchandise exports declined before imports, indicating a shift in trade dynamics. Countries like the Philippines, Ukraine, and Turkey were most affected, while low-income African countries, mainly commodity exporters, showed more resilience.
• Sectoral Impact: Durable goods exports were heavily impacted, especially in sectors such as mineral products, transportation equipment, metals, and stone and glass. In contrast, non-durable consumer goods experienced the least decline.
• Services Trade Resilience: Trade in services proved more resilient, driven by continued demand for professional and technical services, though some sectors like tourism and transportation saw declines.

Firms' Perspective on Trade Finance Scarcity

• SMEs Most Affected: Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) faced greater constraints due to weaker capital bases, less bargaining power, and higher costs of trade finance instruments.
• Reasons for Export Decline: Firms cited lack of new orders and cancellation of existing orders as the primary causes of export decline, with many also facing reduced financing from buyers.
• Payment Methods: Despite the crisis, most firms did not change their payment methods, which were largely based on the nature of their business relationships.
• Global Supply Chains: Firms involved in global supply chains and those in sectors heavily affected by the global recession were more constrained by trade finance issues.

Banks' Perspective on Trade Finance Scarcity

• Increased Pricing and Reduced Volume: Banks raised prices for trade finance instruments due to higher funding costs and credit risks, but the drop in volume was attributed more to reduced demand than to pricing.
• Liquidity and Risk Aversion: Local banks were not facing liquidity issues but had become more risk-averse and selective in their lending practices.

Government Actions

• Liquidity Measures: Governments implemented measures to increase liquidity, including supporting Export Credit Agencies (ECAs) and securing trade credit lines for firms.
• Competitiveness Initiatives: Some governments introduced broader policies to enhance the competitiveness of domestic firms and support long-term exports.
• Effectiveness Uncertain: The effectiveness of these measures was still unclear, with limited evidence of increased lending or significant recovery in trade flows.

Key Information

• Trade Finance Gap: The global trade finance gap was estimated at $100–300 billion, with a convergence towards a $250 billion gap.
• Impact by Firm Size and Sector: SMEs and firms in sectors affected by the global slowdown were more vulnerable to trade finance constraints.
• Regional Differences: Low-income African countries were relatively more insulated from the crisis, while middle-income countries like South Africa were affected by the nature of their business relationships rather than regional factors.
• Export Diversification Challenges: Export diversification was difficult, especially for low-income countries, due to reliance on a few key markets and the impact of global demand drops.

Conclusion

The global financial crisis significantly constrained trade finance for exporters and importers in developing countries. While the supply of trade finance was affected, the primary issue for firms was the drop in global demand. The survey highlighted the need for policies that address both short-term liquidity issues and long-term structural challenges in trade finance and export competitiveness. The findings underscore the importance of understanding the interplay between trade finance availability, firm characteristics, and regional economic conditions to design effective policy responses.