斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所-Emerging-Suppliers-in-the-Global-Arms-Trade_24页_393kb

Summary of "Emerging Suppliers in the Global Arms Trade"

Core Content

This paper explores the growing role of emerging arms suppliers in the global arms trade and their implications for international security. It highlights how the diversification of arms suppliers since the mid-2000s has introduced new dynamics and risks in the arms trade, particularly in regions of instability. The focus is on four countries—Brazil, South Korea, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—which have risen in the arms export rankings but remain minor compared to traditional suppliers.

The paper examines the historical context of arms supplier concentration, showing that while the United States and the Soviet Union dominated the arms trade during the Cold War, the end of the Cold War and subsequent geopolitical changes led to a diversification of suppliers. The 2000s saw the lowest concentration in arms exports, with a notable rise in the number of emerging suppliers. This diversification has increased competition and, in some cases, facilitated the development of local arms industries.

Main Points

• Emerging suppliers have a smaller share of global arms exports than traditional ones but can still have significant impacts on security and conflict.
• The arms trade is associated with various risks, including the perpetration of crimes against humanity, internal repression, and the prolongation or aggravation of conflicts.
• The Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) and other multilateral agreements aim to regulate arms transfers, but the diversification of suppliers complicates compliance and control.
• Emerging suppliers often rely on foreign technology and components, but their growing capabilities and exports can contribute to the spread of arms and destabilization.
• The paper analyzes the trajectory of four emerging suppliers—Brazil, South Korea, Turkey, and UAE—showing how they have expanded their arms production and export activities in recent years.

Key Information

Global Arms Export Trends

• The volume of arms exports by emerging suppliers is lower than that of established suppliers, but their impact on regional and international security is significant.
• The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) is used to measure supply concentration in the global arms trade, with the index showing a marked decrease in concentration since the early 2000s, especially in 2009.
• The USA's share of arms exports declined from 42% in 1998-2002 to around one-third in the 2010s, allowing other countries to grow in prominence.

Case Studies: Emerging Suppliers

United Arab Emirates (UAE)

• The UAE has become a major arms importer since 2000 and has developed its arms industry through offset policies.
• It formed the Emirates Defence Industries Company (EDIC) in 2014 and later merged it into EDGE, a state-owned company.
• The UAE's arms exports mainly target Middle Eastern and African countries, with a focus on armoured vehicles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
• The UAE's exports increased by 86% between 2010-14 and 2015-19, and it became one of the 20 largest arms exporters by 2019.

Turkey

• Turkey's arms industry was severely impacted by the US arms embargo (1975-78), leading to a push for domestic development.
• The industry has grown significantly due to increased internal demand and technological advancements.
• Turkey's arms exports have grown by 86% in the same period as the UAE's, and it exports to Africa, Central and South Asia, and the Middle East.
• The Turkish arms industry is still dependent on foreign technology, especially in complex systems like tanks and combat aircraft.

South Korea

• South Korea's arms industry developed in the 1970s due to increased military threats from North Korea and US policy encouraging self-reliance.
• It implemented an offset policy in the early 1980s and reformed its arms acquisition process with the creation of DAPA (Defense Acquisition Program Administration) in 2006.
• The US denial of technology transfers in 2015 accelerated South Korea's development of a domestic arms industry.
• South Korea's arms exports have grown, and it now exports to Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, with a focus on military technology and equipment.
• South Korea is among the fastest-growing arms-producing countries, and its exports have increased significantly since the 2000s.

Brazil

• Brazil has a long history of arms development, with a resurgence in the late 1980s and continued growth since the 2000s.
• It is an emerging supplier and has a limited but growing arms export capability.
• Brazil's exports are primarily directed to Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East.
• It has imported foreign technology and has been involved in offset agreements, which have helped build its arms industry.

Implications for International Security

• The increased number of arms suppliers raises concerns about the diffusion of arms technology and the potential for conflict escalation.
• Emerging suppliers often export to regions of instability, where the risk of arms being used in conflicts or repression is higher.
• The growth of local arms industries can lead to greater military capabilities in recipient states, potentially increasing the likelihood of conflict.
• The regulatory challenges posed by emerging suppliers are significant, as they complicate arms control efforts and international compliance.

Conclusion and Future Research

• The rise of emerging suppliers has reshaped the global arms trade, leading to greater market competition and technological diffusion.
• The paper concludes by suggesting future research directions, such as examining the impact of emerging suppliers on regional stability and ways to manage the risks associated with their arms exports.
• It also highlights the need for stronger international regulations to address the increasing complexity of the arms trade and the potential for destabilization.