2020年就业前景报告（英文版）_163页_10mb

The Future of Jobs Report 2020 Summary

Core Content

The Future of Jobs Report 2020 is a comprehensive analysis of the evolving global labor market, particularly in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic repercussions. It outlines both the short-term disruptions and long-term trends in employment, focusing on the impact of technology, job displacement, reskilling needs, and inequality. The report emphasizes the need for global collaboration between the public and private sectors to support workers in transitioning to the future of work.

Main Points

1. Labour Market Outlook in the Pandemic Economy

• Short-term shocks: The pandemic has caused an unexpected and significant disruption to labor markets, leading to sharp unemployment spikes and economic contraction.
• Long-term trends: The adoption of technology is expected to accelerate, with cloud computing, big data, and e-commerce remaining key priorities for businesses.
• Remote and hybrid workforce: The shift to remote work has been rapid, with the potential for 44% of the workforce to operate remotely by 2025.
• Impact on equality: The pandemic has exacerbated existing inequalities, particularly affecting lower-wage workers, women, and younger workers.

2. Forecasts for Labour Market Evolution in 2020-2025

• Job displacement and creation: While job creation is expected to outpace job destruction, the rate of job creation is slowing, and job destruction is accelerating.
• Estimated job changes: By 2025, 85 million jobs may be displaced, and 97 million new roles may emerge.
• Skills gap: Skills gaps remain high, with a 40% of workers needing reskilling within six months or less.
• In-demand skills: Critical thinking, problem-solving, and self-management skills (e.g., active learning, resilience, flexibility) are expected to rise in prominence.
• Employer expectations: 73% of companies plan to provide reskilling and upskilling opportunities, with 46% of displaced workers expected to transition into new roles.

3. Public and Private Sector Pathways to Reviving Labour Markets

• Need for collaboration: The report highlights the urgency of public-private collaboration to support workers through the transition to new job roles.
• Reskilling Revolution Initiative: Aiming to reskill one billion people by 2030, this initiative is a key part of the Global Reset.
• Public sector role: The public sector must provide stronger support for reskilling and upskilling, including incentives for investment, safety nets, and reforms in education and training systems.
• Government support: Governments need to consider the long-term implications of maintaining or withdrawing crisis support measures to ensure economic stability and social cohesion.

Key Information

• Global Reset: A socio-economic transformation is necessary to ensure fairness, sustainability, and equity in the labor market.
• Technology and automation: These forces are accelerating job transitions, with 40% of work tasks expected to be replaced by machines and algorithms by 2025.
• Digitalization: 84% of employers plan to rapidly digitalize their processes, including remote work expansion.
• Productivity and well-being: Employers are taking steps to support employee well-being through digital tools and community-building initiatives.
• Unemployment figures: The unemployment rate in the United States rose from 3.5% in February 2020 to 14.7% in April 2020, showing a sharp increase compared to previous periods.
• Global unemployment: The ILO estimates that real unemployment in the first half of 2020 reached 6.6%, with OECD forecasts suggesting it could peak at 12.6% by the end of 2020 and still be at 8.9% by end 2021.

Conclusion

The Future of Jobs Report 2020 underscores the urgent need for action to manage the transition from the current labor market disruptions to the future of work. It emphasizes the importance of reskilling, investment in human capital, and collaboration between sectors to ensure economic prosperity and social equity.

Supporting Data and Partners

• Data sources: The report draws on insights from business leaders, LinkedIn, Coursera, ADP, and FutureFit.AI.
• Methodology: It uses qualitative and quantitative data to provide a comprehensive view of the future of jobs and skills.
• Partners: The World Economic Forum has collaborated with over 100 partners and expert communities to provide actionable insights.

Recommendations

• Reskilling and upskilling: A global effort is needed to reskill and upskill a large portion of the workforce.
• Public policy: Governments must implement long-term policies to support displaced workers and reform education systems.
• Private sector engagement: Companies must invest in ESG metrics and human capital development to align with the future of work.

Notes

• The report is part of a series that tracks the evolution of jobs and skills.
• It provides country and industry profiles for 26 advanced and emerging economies and 15 sectors.
• The Platform for the New Economy and Society plays a key role in facilitating collaboration and implementing initiatives such as the Reskilling Revolution.

References

• Ding, et al., 2020
• Hale, et al., 2020
• OECD Economic Outlook
• International Labour Organization (ILO)

This report serves as a guiding document for businesses, governments, and workers to navigate the challenges and opportunities of the future of work.