2025-05-20-欧洲央行-抵押贷款再融资与边际消费倾向（英）_59页_1mb

Mortgage refinancing and the marginal propensity to consume

Introduction and Context

• Objective: To analyze how mortgage refinancing affects consumption behavior, focusing on the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) and its implications for fiscal policy.
• Key Insight: Mortgage refinancing enables households to convert illiquid housing wealth into liquid assets, influencing consumption patterns. The study shows that refinancing reduces MPC, particularly for liquidity-constrained households.

Key Findings

1. MPC Changes:

   • Mortgage refinancing decreases the MPC by approximately 50%, stabilizing at lower levels post-refinancing.
   • Refinancing households exhibit lower liquidity assets, higher debt-to-income ratios, and own more illiquid wealth.

2. Fiscal Policy Implications:

   • Targeting fiscal transfers to households that have not recently refinanced can enhance policy efficiency, saving between 4% and 12% of untargeted programs.
   • Under the CARES Act of 2020, this could save approximately $30 billion.

3. Countercyclical Refinancing:

   • Refinancing activity peaks during economic downturns, aligning with increased liquidity demand during recessions.

Model and Quantitative Analysis

• A partial-equilibrium life-cycle model with refinancing decisions is developed to quantify effects.
• Simulations show that excluding refinancing reduces aggregate MPC by 16-24%, emphasizing its role in policy transmission.
• Refinancers exhibit lower MPC (~15%) compared to non-refinancers (~24%).

Policy Recommendations

• Fiscal transfers should prioritize households that cannot easily access home equity, improving stimulus effectiveness.
• Incorporate refinancing behavior into heterogeneous agent models to better design monetary and fiscal policies.

Supporting Evidence

• Microdata from U.S. households (PSID) and Fannie Mae loan-level data confirm countercyclical refinancing.
• Scenario analyses during COVID-19 highlight suboptimal spending by refinancers, reducing fiscal transfer impact.

Conclusion

• Mortgages provide an alternative liquidity channel, but refinancing reduces MPC, necessitating targeted fiscal interventions.
• Future research should explore general-equilibrium effects of refinancing on broader macroeconomic policies.