美联储-关于货币非中立性，经过衡量的信念能告诉我们什么？（英）-2024-55页_578kb

Summary

This paper examines how firms' measured beliefs impact monetary non-neutrality in a general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities and endogenous information acquisition. It introduces a model where firms dynamically acquire imperfect information about their optimal prices due to information costs, leading to selection effects where price-setters are the least uncertain firms. Using survey data from New Zealand firms, the paper quantifies that endogenous information acquisition significantly amplifies monetary non-neutrality, with uncertainty effects comparable to price stickiness. Key findings include: (1) selection effects make price-setters' beliefs the primary driver of macroeconomic outcomes; (2) data on uncertainty and pricing durations are necessary for identifying the real effects of monetary policy, while traditional price change data are insufficient; and (3) higher microeconomic volatility and selection dampen monetary non-neutrality, while price stickiness has an ambiguous effect. The results highlight the critical role of heterogeneous information acquisition in understanding the transmission of monetary policy.