曼哈顿政策研究所-不能压制一座伟大的城市：2020年人口普查告诉我们的关于纽约的信息（英）-2021.11-23页_4mb

2020 Census Summary: New York City and Its Region

Core Content

The 2020 U.S. Census provides significant insights into the population and housing dynamics of New York City (NYC) and its surrounding region. Despite initial projections of a population decline, the actual results show a net population gain of 629,057, marking a 7.7% increase to 8,804,190. This growth was primarily driven by natural increase (births over deaths) rather than migration. While the Census Bureau had estimated a slight population decline due to out-migration, the actual data revealed a slightly positive net migration.

The census also showed that housing growth outpaced net construction. NYC gained 247,573 housing units, a 7.3% increase, exceeding the city's reported new construction. This discrepancy may be due to improved census methodologies, inclusion of unpermitted construction, or a more accurate address list.

Key Findings

Population Growth by Borough

• Brooklyn: Largest population (2,736,074) and largest population gain (231,374), a 9.2% increase.
• Queens: Second-largest population (2,405,464) and second-largest population gain (174,742), a 7.8% increase.
• Manhattan: Third-largest population (1,694,251) and a population gain of 108,378, a 6.8% increase.
• The Bronx: Population increased by 87,546, a 6.3% gain, reaching a record high of 1,472,654.
• Staten Island: Smallest population gain (27,017), a 5.8% increase, with a record population of 495,747.

Housing Unit Growth

• Brooklyn: Largest housing gain (77,361), a 7.7% increase.
• Manhattan: Second-largest housing gain (66,836), a 7.9% increase.
• Queens: Third-largest housing gain (61,206), a 7.3% increase.
• The Bronx: Fourth-largest housing gain (35,134), a 6.9% increase.
• Staten Island: Smallest housing gain (7,036), a 4.0% increase.

Vacant Housing Units

• Vacant units decreased in four of the five boroughs.
• Manhattan saw a significant increase in vacant units (12,900), concentrated in districts 2, 3, 5, 6, and 7.
• Brooklyn and Queens had notable decreases in vacant units (15,587 and 5,887 respectively), suggesting better census accuracy and housing stabilization.

Racial and Ethnic Composition

• The Hispanic and Asian non-Hispanic populations increased significantly (154,274 and 345,383, respectively).
• The white non-Hispanic population decreased slightly (3,048), and the black non-Hispanic population dropped by 84,404.
• Racial changes varied by community district, with some areas showing gentrification effects and others experiencing mixed growth across different groups.
• 15 community districts were more than 50% white non-Hispanic, with many experiencing population declines among white residents while other groups increased.

Regional and State Trends

• Northern New Jersey (especially Hudson County) saw significant population and housing growth, forming a de facto "sixth borough."
• Long Island suburbs underperformed in accommodating regional growth compared to New Jersey.
• Westchester had more promising growth, with a 5.8% population increase and a 4.9% housing increase.
• Upstate New York as a whole experienced population loss, particularly in rural areas, but larger upstate cities like Buffalo saw gains.

Policy Implications

• The next mayor should consider zoning reforms to distribute housing supply more equitably across community districts.
• New York State should adopt land-use reforms to help affluent suburbs accommodate growth.
• Improved transit infrastructure is needed to connect Northern New Jersey with Manhattan to support regional prosperity.
• Addressing chronic housing shortages remains a key challenge despite growth, requiring more housing supply to match demand.

Conclusion

The 2020 Census data indicates that NYC has continued to grow, contradicting earlier pessimistic projections. The city's population and housing trends highlight the importance of zoning changes, economic opportunities, and regional cooperation in sustaining growth and addressing housing shortages. The data also underscores the complexity of demographic shifts, showing that gentrification and housing development do not uniformly impact all neighborhoods.