2000年-世界发展银行全球_Sri_Lanka___Recapturing_Missed_Opportunities_75页_5mb

Summary of the Report: "Recapturing Missed Opportunities" for Sri Lanka

Core Content

This report, prepared by Eric Bell and Rapti Goonesekere, evaluates Sri Lanka's economic and social performance in the early 2000s, highlighting the country's development challenges, particularly the ongoing civil conflict, and the need for structural reforms to improve economic growth and reduce poverty. It also outlines the country's macroeconomic resilience, fiscal and monetary policies, and the effectiveness of poverty reduction programs.

Main Points

1. Economic and Social Performance

• Economic Growth: Sri Lanka has maintained healthy economic growth since the early 1990s, averaging around 5% annually. In 1999, real GDP growth was 4.3%, slightly below the long-term trend but better than most other developing countries.
• Unemployment and Inflation: Unemployment reached a historical low of 8.8% in 1999, while inflation dropped to 4.7%, a historical low.
• Sectoral Growth: All three main sectors (agriculture, industry, and services) showed growth in 1999, with the services sector growing at 4% (down from previous years), industry slowing to 4.4% due to export-oriented sectors facing reduced global trade, and agriculture rebounding with 4.4% growth.
• External Accounts: The current account deficit widened to 3.3% of GDP in 1999, but remained below the 1990-96 levels. Gross official reserves fell to 2.9 months of imports, continuing a decline that began in 1993.

2. Political Developments

• Elections and Conflict: Political uncertainty and a volatile security situation dominated the last 18 months. The 1998-1999 elections slowed structural reforms, and the 1999 Presidential elections saw President Chandrika Kumaratunga re-elected. Parliamentary elections were scheduled for mid-2000.
• Security Tensions: The security situation remained tense throughout 1999, with several high-profile attacks, including assassinations and bombings. The conflict intensified in the Jaffna peninsula in early 2000, with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) attempting to capture the region.
• Peace Initiatives: A bipartisan approach to resolving the conflict is underway, with Norway assisting in discussions between the Government and LTTE.

3. Fiscal and Monetary Policies

• Fiscal Deficit: The budget deficit was reduced to 7.5% of GDP in 1999. The 2000 Budget aimed to maintain this level, but increased defense spending due to the conflict led to a projected deficit of below 8%.
• Fiscal Challenges: The fiscal situation was affected by reduced revenues and increased expenditures, particularly in defense and debt servicing. The wage bill also decreased by 2 percentage points of GDP despite an expansion in the public service workforce.
• Monetary Policy: Prudent monetary policy helped reduce inflation, but interest rates could not be lowered due to the Government's high borrowing needs. The financial sector has seen some structural improvements, but governance weaknesses in state banks remain.

4. Poverty and Human Development

• Poverty Incidence: Despite economic growth, poverty reduction has been slow. One-fourth of the population lives below the poverty line, and some provinces have a poverty incidence of up to 35%.
• Regional Disparities: Regional disparities widened between 1990 and 1996, with the North-East and Border Villages being the most deprived areas. The conflict and related issues like displacement and violence have exacerbated poverty and social issues.
• Poverty Programs: Large poverty programs in the 1990s had design and implementation weaknesses, with benefits often going to the top income quintiles. These programs have not effectively empowered the poor or created sustained opportunities for them.

5. Structural Reforms and Institutional Weaknesses

• Public Sector Role: The public sector has historically played a significant role in job creation and resource transfers. However, its size and inefficiency have constrained economic growth and employment opportunities.
• Governance Issues: Public sector governance has weakened over the years, with poor accountability, lack of oversight, and politicization of recruitment. These issues have affected the efficiency and effectiveness of public administration.
• Reforms Needed: The report emphasizes the need for structural reforms to reduce the size and inefficiency of the public sector, improve financial controls, and enhance governance. These reforms are essential to achieving sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction.

Key Information

• Currency Equivalent: US$1.00 = SLR 75.02 (June 9, 2000)
• Fiscal Year: January 1 – December 31
• Key Acronyms:
  • ADB: Asian Development Bank
  • AGD: Auditor General's Department
  • CENWOR: Centre for Women's Research
  • CFS: Consumer Finances Survey
  • BOI: Board of Investment
  • DFCC: Development Finance Corporation of Ceylon
  • DMS: Department of Management Services
  • EGI: Economic Governance Index
  • EPF: Employees Provident Fund
  • GDP: Gross Domestic Product
  • GNP: Gross National Product
  • GST: Goods and Services Tax
  • HDC: Human Development Centre
  • HEIS: Household Expenditure and Income Survey
  • HGI: Humane Governance Index
  • IDA: International Development Agency
  • IMF: International Monetary Fund
  • IPS: Institute of Policy Studies
  • JBIC: Japan Bank for International Cooperation
  • LTTE: Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam
  • NARC: National Administrative Reform Council
  • NGO: Non Governmental Organization
  • NDTF: National Development Trust Fund
  • PA: People's Alliance
  • PRA: Participatory Rural Appraisal
  • PSC: Public Service Commission
  • PERC: Public Enterprise Reform Commission
  • SCB: State Commercial Banks
  • SDO: Samurdhi Development Officers
  • SLCTB: Sri Lanka Central Transport Board
  • SRR: Statutory Reserve Requirement
  • SLIS: Sri Lanka Integrated Survey
  • SLT: Sri Lanka Telecom
  • TEWA: Termination of Employment and Workmen Act
  • UNP: United National Party

Conclusion

Sri Lanka's future economic and social development hinges on resolving the civil conflict and implementing structural reforms to enhance economic growth and reduce poverty. The report emphasizes that while macroeconomic stability and some progress in privatization have been achieved, the country must address governance weaknesses, improve the efficiency of the public sector, and ensure more effective poverty reduction strategies. The ongoing conflict has had a significant impact on the economy and society, and its resolution is critical to the country's long-term development.