2021-08-01-Credit_Suisse-Investment_Ideas_that_Lead_63页_3mb
报告摘要
Credit Suisse's U.S. Top Picks Summary
Overview
Credit Suisse has identified 42 top investment ideas for the U.S. market, including 37 Outperform-rated and 5 Underperform-rated stocks. These picks are based on analysts' insights and are not intended to be investment portfolios but rather a snapshot of current top recommendations.
What is New
- New #1 Top Outperform: JCI, MRVL
- Top Underperform Ideas: WSM, NGL, WU, AXP, IRM
- High Conviction Calls:
- Outperform: CAT, EQH, JCI, LNG, MSI, PTON, PWR, SEAS, SPR, UPS, VFC, WFC
- Underperform: AXP, IRM, WSM
Methodology
- Credit Suisse provides an "one-stop shop" for the research team's best ideas.
- Each analyst identifies their #1 top stock pick based on a 6- to 12-month time horizon.
- For each pick, analysts provide a summary, investment thesis, catalysts, debate/pushbacks, valuation, and relevant charts.
- HOLT® analysis is included for each #1 Top Pick, assessing market expectations and valuation gaps.
Top of the Crop: Outperform-Rated Ideas
These are the highest conviction Outperform ideas with the least demanding market expectations.
Key Metrics
| Ticker | Coverage | Market Cap ($B) | TP ($) | CS vs IBES EPS FY1 | CS vs IBES EPS FY2 | CS vs Consensus TP | Rating (Net Buy, %) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSI.N | IT Hardware / Telecom Equipment (US) | 38.0 | 301 | -0.5% | 2.7% | 26.8% | 11% |
| TECKb.TO | Metals & Mining (US) | 14.9 | 42 | 4.7% | 11.6% | 22.1% | 18% |
| SEAS.N | Travel & Leisure (US) | 3.7 | 73 | -131.9% | 38.7% | 20.4% | -9% |
| EQH | Life Insurance (US) | 13.2 | 51 | 1.8% | 3.0% | 20.4% | 82% |
| PTON.OQ | Travel & Leisure (US) | 36.0 | 152 | -312.1% | 83.2% | 14.4% | 36% |
| DVN.N | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (US) | 13.9 | 105 | 29.4% | 13.2% | 7.2% | 100% |
| GPN.N | Payments & Financial Technology (US) | 18.3 | 240 | 25.1% | 25.1% | 17.6% | 7.5% |
| IBM.N | IT Hardware / Telecom Equipment (US) | 112.4 | 256 | 20.4% | 23.2% | 16.5% | 3.8% |
| AMZN.OC | Internet (US) | 1.3 | 6.0 | 11.5% | 10.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% |
| APTV.N | Autos & Auto Parts (US) | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1% | 14.6% | 10.1% | -0.0% |
| CMCSA.C | Cable & Satellite (US) | 9.6 | 6.8 | 9.6% | 10.4% | 7.2% | 4.0% |
| HCA.N | Health Care Facilities (US) | 14.5 | 9.1 | 14.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 5.3% |
| CCK.N | Paper & Packaging (US) | 11.0 | 8.5 | 11.0% | 11.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% |
| AAP.N | Retail: Hardlines (US) | 9.6 | 7.2 | 9.6% | 9.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% |
| HSY.N | Food / Agribusiness (US) | 21.7 | 20.0 | 21.7% | 21.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| EW.N | Medical Supplies & Devices (US) | 16.9 | 15.5 | 16.9% | 16.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% |
| CAT.N | Machinery (US) | 12.7 | 10.8 | 12.7% | 11.8% | 1.0% | 1.9% |
Top of the Crop: Underperform-Rated Ideas
These are the highest conviction Underperform ideas with the most demanding market expectations.
Key Metrics
| Ticker | Coverage | Market Cap ($B) | TP ($) | CS vs IBES EPS FY1 | CS vs IBES EPS FY2 | CS vs Consensus TP | Rating (Net Buy, %) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IRM.N | Business & Professional Services (US) | 12.2 | 18 | -4.0% | -15.2% | -51.2% | 25% |
| WSM.N | Retail: Hardlines (US) | 12.1 | 144 | -13.1% | -18.6% | -16.6% | -71% |
| AXP.N | Multi-Line Banks / Consumer Finance (US) | 131.9 | 122 | -4.6% | -9.6% | -21.3% | -31% |
Top Ideas by Sector / Industry
TECK (Outperform)
- Target Price: C$42
- Market Cap: C$14.94B
- Current Price: C$28.48
- Reason for Outperform: Strong copper growth story, operational turnaround in coal, and strong liquidity.
- Investment Thesis: Copper production is expected to double by 2023, coal margins are expected to improve, and the company has strong liquidity.
- Catalysts: QB2 project development updates, met coal market improvement, and non-core asset sales.
- Valuation: Target price is based on SOTP framework, current valuation is undervalued with a 25% FCF yield.
- Risks: Prolonged downturn in steel production and global copper demand.
CCK (Outperform)
- Target Price: $134
- Market Cap: $13.11B
- Current Price: $99.85
- Reason for Outperform: Strong growth in the U.S. beverage can market, improving FCF generation, and potential asset sales.
- Investment Thesis: Growth in beverage cans, improved FCF, and strategic portfolio review.
- Catalysts: Divestiture of non-can businesses, beverage can capacity expansion.
- Valuation: Based on 11.5x target multiple for 2022, current price is undervalued.
- Risks: Hard seltzer demand, new plant execution, and portfolio review outcomes.
SEAS (Outperform)
- Target Price: $73
- Market Cap: $3.7B
- Current Price: $47.13
- Reason for Outperform: Strong EBITDA estimates and potential for pre-COVID attendance levels.
- Investment Thesis: Pent-up demand, cost reductions, and pricing growth.
- Catalysts: Easing of pandemic restrictions, 2Q21 earnings.
- Valuation: Based on 11x 2022 EBITDA estimate.
- Risks: Consumer health, weather, and competition.
PTON (Outperform)
- Target Price: $152
- Market Cap: $36B
- Current Price: $120.69
- Reason for Outperform: Strong growth in connected fitness, expansion into new markets, and a growing TAM.
- Investment Thesis: Industry megatrends, product innovation, and geographic expansion.
- Catalysts: New product release, new market entry, and subscriber growth.
- Valuation: Based on 5.5x EV/S on FY25 sales.
- Risks: Brand impact from recall, slowing demand, and rising churn.
HSY (Outperform)
- Target Price: $194
- Market Cap: $48.04B
- Current Price: $178.41
- Reason for Outperform: Market share gains in North America and international tailwinds.
- Investment Thesis: Market leader in confectionery, strong pricing power, and expansion into adjacent snack categories.
- Catalysts: Nielsen retail tracking data, 2Q21 results.
- Valuation: Based on 24.5x P/E multiple against forward EPS.
- Risks: Market share reversal, confectionery category slowdown, and international market performance.
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