ECB欧洲央行-Letter-from-the-ECB-President-to-Mr-Stelios-Kouloglou,-MEP,-on-the-Greek-adjustment-programme_2页_116kb

ECB President Draghi's Response to MEP Kouloglou's Letter

Core Content

The letter from Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), addresses questions raised by MEP Stelios Kouloglou regarding the impact of fiscal policies on economic growth and the potential eligibility of Greek government securities for the ECB's Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP). The response is based on the ECB Research Bulletin article referenced in Kouloglou's letter, which examines fiscal multipliers in the context of the past decade's economic crisis.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Fiscal Multipliers and Economic Growth

• The ECB Research Bulletin article explores what forecasters can learn about the impact of fiscal policies on economic growth from the past ten years.
• It analyzes a sample of 24 EU countries that were under an excessive deficit procedure during the crisis.
• The focus is not on countries that received financial assistance, but rather on the general experience of fiscal policy impacts.
• The article highlights that fiscal multipliers can vary depending on the economic context, and the Greek case is used as an example of how unexpected outcomes can affect these multipliers.

2. Greece's Economic Adjustment and Fiscal Multipliers

• The Greek output decline in 2010-2012 was more severe than projected, leading to a re-evaluation of fiscal multipliers by the institutions involved in Greece's adjustment programmes.
• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported on this in an ex post evaluation of the first Greek adjustment programme, published in June 2013.
• The report attributes the projection error not only to fiscal dynamics but also to external factors such as political uncertainty and incomplete reform implementation, which affected private sector confidence and recovery.

3. Eligibility for the PSPP

• The eligibility of Greek government securities for the PSPP is a decision made by the ECB Governing Council based on its own independent debt sustainability assessment and other risk management factors.
• A central precondition for eligibility is that Greek government securities meet the ECB's minimum credit requirements.
• Draghi refers to his previous responses to MEPs, including his reply to Mr Nikolaos Chountis on 23 June 2017 and his statements during the hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs on 9 July 2018, for further details on this matter.

Conclusion

Draghi emphasizes that the ECB's research reflects the views of its authors and not necessarily those of the ECB or the Eurosystem. He also clarifies that the PSPP eligibility for Greece is subject to the ECB's internal assessment and that the Greek case illustrates the complexity of fiscal policy impacts, influenced by both fiscal and non-fiscal factors.