联合国贸易发展委员会-全球贸易动态（2023年12月）（英）-8页_1mb

报告摘要

Global trade faced significant challenges in 2023, with a notable decline in goods trade and mixed performance in services. Geopolitical factors played a crucial role, reducing interdependence between major economies like China and the United States. Exports from developing countries underperformed, and South-South trade saw sharp reductions. East Asia's trade remained subdued, while North America showed relative resilience. Goods trade is projected to contract by approximately US$2 trillion or 7.5% in 2023, contrasting with a 7% increase expected in services. Overall, the outlook for 2024 is uncertain and generally pessimistic, driven by factors such as high interest rates, commodity price volatility, supply chain adjustments, and restrictive trade policies.

Regional trends highlighted weak performance in Africa and East Asia, with specific declines in exports. The shift towards "friend-shoring" indicates a move away from diversified trade relationships, concentrating global trade within closer geopolitical alliances. Key factors contributing to these trends include economic disparities, falling commodity prices, and persistent industrial slowdowns in major economies like China and the United States.

The 2023 trade contraction, averaging a decline in imports and exports for developing nations, underscores the widening gap between developed and developing economies. Supply chain adjustments and geopolitical tensions further complicated trade patterns, with services showing some recovery but sustaining pressure in the latter half of the year.

Overall uncertainty persists for 2024, with risks amplified by high debt, industrial output declines, and limited global demand growth.

Global Trade Performance: Goods trade contracted by nearly US$2 trillion (7.5% decrease), while services expanded by US$500 billion (7% increase). Diminished demand in developed economies and East Asia underperformance drove most declines.
Regional Breakdown: Developing countries saw average annual declines in imports (-6%) and exports (-7%). South-South trade sharply decreased, and East Asia remained below average. North America was relatively resilient.
Geopolitical Impact: Reduced interdependence between China and the US, sanctions on Russia, and de-risking in US-China trade relationships intensified trade disruptions.
Outlook for 2024: Uncertain with risks including high interest rates, commodity volatility, supply chain fragmentations, and restrictive trade measures.
Key Influential Factors:
- Economic growth disparities among regions.
- High interest rates affecting industrial output.
- Commodity price volatility from conflicts and supply issues.
- Shifting supply chains towards geopolitical alignments.
- Increased trade subsidies and restrictive policies.
- Low container shipping demand but rising raw material demand.