战略与国际研究中心-Trends-in-Arms-Exports-Since-the-Cold-War_28页_135kb

Summary of "Trends in Arms Exports Since the Cold War"

Core Content

This document analyzes the trends in global arms exports since the end of the Cold War, with a focus on the United States. It discusses the evolution of arms sales, the role of sanctions in limiting arms trade, and the comparative performance of major arms exporters.

Main Trends in Arms Exports

• Global Arms Exports Declined Post-Cold War: After the Cold War, world arms exports fell sharply from the late 1980s to mid-1990s, but began to recover in 1996. However, they have not returned to Cold War levels.
• US Arms Exports Remain Constant: Despite the overall decline, US arms exports in value have remained relatively stable, indicating a shift in global market dynamics.
• NATO and Russia Decline: NATO European arms exports have remained constant, while Russia and the former Warsaw Pact countries have seen a sharp decline in their market share.
• Middle East as a Key Market: The Middle East has remained a significant market for US arms exports, though it is more competitive than Europe.
• US Market Share Growth: The US has increased its market share in new arms sales agreements, becoming the largest arms exporter as a percentage of total arms exports, even though arms exports are a small portion of global trade.

Regional Analysis

US Arms Exports by Region

• Europe, Middle East, and East Asia dominate US arms sales.
• Western Europe has been a consistent market for US arms, though its share has decreased over time.
• Middle East remains competitive, with fluctuations in arms sales due to political and military dynamics.
• East Asia has seen a steady increase in arms sales to the US, especially with countries like South Korea and Japan.
• Other regions (e.g., Oceania, Central and South America, Africa) account for a smaller share of US arms exports.

Global Arms Export Landscape

• The US dominates European arms sales, turning the market into a "one way street" due to the preference for national procurement and the lack of effective competition.
• China is not a major importer but rather an exporter of arms, and its arms imports are limited.
• Russia remains the largest arms exporter in terms of new agreements, but the US has no peer rival in this sector.
• The value of sales does not equate to the number of arms transferred, as the US focuses on high-value, high-tech systems.

Sanctions and Arms Trade

• Sanctions Can Limit Arms Imports: The document argues that the idea that sanctions do not work in the arms trade is not universally applicable. It provides several case studies to support this:
  • Iran and Iraq: Sanctions significantly reduced arms imports, especially after the Gulf War. Iran's imports dropped to a small fraction of their Cold War levels, and Iraq faced substantial challenges in maintaining its military capabilities.
  • Libya: Sanctions pushed Libya off the arms import map, indicating their effectiveness.
  • North Korea: Sanctions have led to minimal global arms transfers, showing that they can restrict the flow of arms to the country.
• Iraq's Military Production: Iraq's attempts to substitute imported arms with domestic production have been limited, especially for high-tech weapons. Military production has been focused on weapons of mass destruction rather than conventional arms.
• Developing Nations: No developing state has successfully mass-produced advanced military equipment, such as fighter planes or tanks, even with foreign assistance. Only a few countries, like Jordan, South Korea, and Turkey, have made meaningful upgrades.

Key Statistics

• World Arms Exports (Constant 1997 $US billions):

  • 1996: 59.9
  • 1997: 59.9
  • 1995: 48.5
  • 1994: 58.8
  • 1993: 74.2
  • 1992: 49.7
  • 1991: 75.2
  • 1990: 75.2
  • 1989: 64.4
  • 1988: 95.5
  • 1987: 69.1

• US Arms Exports (Constant 1997 $US billions):

  • 1996: 38.3
  • 1997: 38.3
  • 1995: 28.5
  • 1994: 39.2
  • 1993: 58.3
  • 1992: 29.9
  • 1991: 58.2
  • 1990: 50.4
  • 1989: 30.2
  • 1988: 30.6
  • 1987: 20.9

• US Arms Exports as a Percent of Total US Exports:

  • 1996: 3.7–4.7%
  • 1995: 4.7%
  • 1994: 3.7–4.7%
  • 1993: 4.7%
  • 1992: 3.7–4.7%
  • 1991: 7–8%

Conclusion

The US has become a dominant force in global arms exports, particularly in new sales agreements, despite the overall decline in arms trade as a percentage of global commerce. Sanctions have proven effective in limiting arms imports in several key regions, and while some nations attempt to substitute imports with domestic production, success has been limited. The Middle East remains a competitive market, whereas Europe has become less competitive due to national procurement policies.